459 FXUS62 KMLB 040051 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 850 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 .UPDATE... Dry air won out across the south today as diurnal convection was forced well south into the southernmost peninsula, prompting early update to remove small chance for showers/storms there. Weak short wave trough aloft supporting a decaying MCS over the SE GOMEX will dampen as it slides east tonight. Was convection dies off, CS canopy will thin and shift east, allowing skies to clear across most of the CWA. Temps will drop into the U50s-L60s by sunrise Mon. ZFP/grids are in fine shape...no further update needed. && .AVIATION...VFR overnight. MVFR CIGs possible in morning diurnal CU field @SUA-VRB, along with isolated-scattered showers. Activity is more likely to develop inland from those coastal aerodromes, before pushing well inland along the ECSB. As such, have only included a brief VCSH period for KSUA 15Z-18Z. && .MARINE... Overnight...NW-N winds near 10kt will steadily shift to NE with seas 2-3ft near shore, 3-4ft well offshore. Inherited forecast is right on top of the current winds/seas shown on the local buoys. && Cristaldi/Rodriguez && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 310 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022) Monday...High pressure builds eastward off of the Mid-Atlantic coast with low level winds veering to the E/SE. This will gradually allow moisture to build back northward into tomorrow. A few showers will be possible, moving onshore and inland along the Treasure Coast into Okeechobee County in the morning. Then, isolated to scattered showers and potentially a few storms will occur into the afternoon, mainly from the Treasure Coast northwestward into Osceola and Okeechobee counties, where PoPs up to 30-50 percent exist. Farther north, drier conditions are expected. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny across much of the area, with highs in the upper 70s/around 80 degrees along the coast, and low to mid 80s inland. Monday night-Tuesday...Broad sfc high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to slowly push seaward through Monday night and Tuesday. Deep S-SE flow Tue will keep a humid warming trend, with developing thunder chcs during the aftn. PoPs will be 50 percent area wide, with a better chc along the coast due to psbl seabreeze forcing from mid to late aftn. Max temps will be in the mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies. Wednesday-Thursday...Latest guidance continues to indicate a slow moving frontal boundary initially just upstream early Wed sagging swd toward the peninsula by early Thu, accompanied by a developing chc of showers and storms. Plenty of avbl moisture may lead to a threat of locally heavy rains and deep convection Wed into Wed night. Present guid has a little higher rain chcs across N zones, but well into the sct and likely range area wide. Euro soln more favorable for deep convection Wed due to more forcing aloft. A favorable SW flow regime looks to persist into Thu, leading to sct to nmrs rain and thunder chcs Thu aftn ahead of the frontal boundary as increased moisture gets pushed into the area. Friday-Saturday...A deep upper level trough anchored over the OH Valley, stretching into the northern Gulf coast will slowly shift eastward Fri into Sat. The frontal boundary is forecast to push through Friday, proving increasing rain chances through the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms for most of the area, with highest PoP (40 percent) from Indian River to southern Osceola county southward. Cool dry air will then filter into the local area behind the frontal passage, providing mostly sunny skies, no rain chances and cooler afternoon temperatures. && .AVIATION...Some lingering MVFR conditions possible through late afternoon from KVRB-KSUA where greater cloud cover exists and a few showers and potentially an isolated storm may occur. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally expected tonight into much of Monday. Moisture does build back northward into tomorrow, with may generate isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few storms, mainly into the afternoon, south of Orlando. && .MARINE... Monday...NE winds 10-15 knots will veer to east as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Seas will range from 2-3 feet nearshore and up to 3-4 feet offshore. A few storms could develop into tomorrow afternoon and push offshore, mainly south of Sebastian Inlet. Monday night-Wednesday...High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will slowly push seaward through the time period, producing generally favorable conditions locally. South to southeast winds around 15 KT Monday night will increasing to 15-18 KT Tuesday afternoon, with fresh southerly flow continuing Wed. However, no headlines are expected for winds/ seas into at least midweek. Seas 2- 3 ft Mon night building to 3-4 ft across the Volusia and Brevard waters Tuesday, with seas decreasing back to 2-3ft by Wed afternoon. Thursday-Friday...S/SW flow 15 to 20 knots Thur becomes west around 15 knots Friday as the next frontal passage looks to push through Friday. No sig hazards anticipated other than local storms moving offshore. Seas 2-3 ft Thur increases to 3-4 ft offshore on Friday, with seas building to 5 ft well offshore late Friday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 59 79 66 85 / 0 10 20 50 MCO 61 84 67 89 / 0 20 20 50 MLB 63 80 67 85 / 0 20 30 50 VRB 63 81 67 86 / 0 30 40 50 LEE 59 83 67 86 / 0 10 10 50 SFB 59 82 66 87 / 0 10 20 50 ORL 62 84 68 89 / 0 20 20 50 FPR 63 81 67 86 / 10 40 40 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$