568 
FXUS63 KMPX 300810
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
310 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Concerns are mainly for snowfall potential today and tonight.

Since late evening, several surface observations from airports 
indicated freezing rain, with some sleet, rain and snow. MnDOT and 
surface road sensors indicated only wet roadways where freezing rain 
was indicated. Webcams also support mainly wet roadways. Farther to 
the west/northwest, webcams have indicated a turnover to light snow 
from Madison, northeast to Alexandria as of 2 am. Farther to the 
south, GLM and regional radar indicated an area of thunderstorms 
from southwest MN, to the western portions of the Twin Cities. Some 
of the stronger storms have supported sleet or small hail overnight. 
These storms were associated with steep lapse rates/elevated 
instability over southern Mn. HREF models and RAP support this 
feature of steeper lapse rates will continue through mid-morning as 
it moves northeast. However, models also indicated that this feature 
will slowly weaken by noon. Therefore, the bulk of the heavier and 
more concentrated area of precipitation will reside through noon 
across southern MN, northeast into west-central WI. Another area of 
precipitation in the form of light snow was concentrated across 
eastern SD, SE ND, and over northern MN. This area was associated 
with the deformation zone which should weaken and reform over IA/WI 
later tonight as the secondary area of low pressure develops over 
the Midwest.  

Two areas of concern for snowfall accumulations. The first will 
occur with the band of precipitation over eastern SD which will 
slowly move east and weaken today. The second area will occur across 
southeast MN, and into west central WI. Both these areas will likely
receive an inch or two of slushy snow. Elsewhere, only a light 
dusting is likely as surface temperatures hold near the freezing 
mark. Any leftover precipitation Wednesday night should exit MN, and
into west central WI by Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

There are three more systems to watch in the long term, but none
appear too impressive at this time. The first, a disjointed trough
with one main piece of energy north and another south, will push
through Friday night. Thermal profiles exhibit no elevated warm layer
and surface temperatures will dictate whether p-type will be rain or
snow. Amounts will be light regardless and no impacts are expected.

The next system comes Sunday/Sunday night. This one is more compact
and tracks across the Upper Midwest. Like the first, precipitation
shouldn't be too organized or impactful and surface temps will
dictate rain or snow. 

The third could be a little more interesting come Tuesday. There
remains a lot of variability with the evolution of this one, but it
could bring a more widespread precipitation event. 

Temperatures throughout the long term will remain near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Main concern is ceilings and visibilities lowering to IFR. There may
be some spots that go LIFR on Wednesday. There may also be some
thunder early Wednesday.

Weather continues to unfold as expected, with lobes of precip 
spiraling around the low pressure approaching from the southwest.
Temperatures will generally remain in the 32-36 degree range, with
snow and sleet possible at times in the heavier convective precip.
Some of the precip will transition at times to snow. As the low
pressure moves closer, MVFR conditions will lower to IFR over most 
of the area. As the low moves northeast, winds will shift to 
northerly, first in western MN and eventually in western WI early 
Wednesday afternoon. But with another wave of precip Wednesday 
afternoon, improvement is not expected until Wednesday evening at 
best.

KMSP...
The chance of thunder should end before the morning push, but the
main concern will be any sleet that mixes in with the rain. It is
not impossible there might be a little bit of freezing rain, but 
that is doubtful. Ceilings should lower to IFR, and LIFR may be
possible on Wednesday. Not sure of that yet so haven't included LIFR
conditions, but it will need to be watched. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...IFR/MVFR likely. Chc AM -SN. Wind NW 15G25 kts. 
Fri...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR/MVFR with -rasn. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Rusk.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...TDK