568 FXUS63 KMPX 300810 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 310 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Concerns are mainly for snowfall potential today and tonight. Since late evening, several surface observations from airports indicated freezing rain, with some sleet, rain and snow. MnDOT and surface road sensors indicated only wet roadways where freezing rain was indicated. Webcams also support mainly wet roadways. Farther to the west/northwest, webcams have indicated a turnover to light snow from Madison, northeast to Alexandria as of 2 am. Farther to the south, GLM and regional radar indicated an area of thunderstorms from southwest MN, to the western portions of the Twin Cities. Some of the stronger storms have supported sleet or small hail overnight. These storms were associated with steep lapse rates/elevated instability over southern Mn. HREF models and RAP support this feature of steeper lapse rates will continue through mid-morning as it moves northeast. However, models also indicated that this feature will slowly weaken by noon. Therefore, the bulk of the heavier and more concentrated area of precipitation will reside through noon across southern MN, northeast into west-central WI. Another area of precipitation in the form of light snow was concentrated across eastern SD, SE ND, and over northern MN. This area was associated with the deformation zone which should weaken and reform over IA/WI later tonight as the secondary area of low pressure develops over the Midwest. Two areas of concern for snowfall accumulations. The first will occur with the band of precipitation over eastern SD which will slowly move east and weaken today. The second area will occur across southeast MN, and into west central WI. Both these areas will likely receive an inch or two of slushy snow. Elsewhere, only a light dusting is likely as surface temperatures hold near the freezing mark. Any leftover precipitation Wednesday night should exit MN, and into west central WI by Thursday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 There are three more systems to watch in the long term, but none appear too impressive at this time. The first, a disjointed trough with one main piece of energy north and another south, will push through Friday night. Thermal profiles exhibit no elevated warm layer and surface temperatures will dictate whether p-type will be rain or snow. Amounts will be light regardless and no impacts are expected. The next system comes Sunday/Sunday night. This one is more compact and tracks across the Upper Midwest. Like the first, precipitation shouldn't be too organized or impactful and surface temps will dictate rain or snow. The third could be a little more interesting come Tuesday. There remains a lot of variability with the evolution of this one, but it could bring a more widespread precipitation event. Temperatures throughout the long term will remain near normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Main concern is ceilings and visibilities lowering to IFR. There may be some spots that go LIFR on Wednesday. There may also be some thunder early Wednesday. Weather continues to unfold as expected, with lobes of precip spiraling around the low pressure approaching from the southwest. Temperatures will generally remain in the 32-36 degree range, with snow and sleet possible at times in the heavier convective precip. Some of the precip will transition at times to snow. As the low pressure moves closer, MVFR conditions will lower to IFR over most of the area. As the low moves northeast, winds will shift to northerly, first in western MN and eventually in western WI early Wednesday afternoon. But with another wave of precip Wednesday afternoon, improvement is not expected until Wednesday evening at best. KMSP... The chance of thunder should end before the morning push, but the main concern will be any sleet that mixes in with the rain. It is not impossible there might be a little bit of freezing rain, but that is doubtful. Ceilings should lower to IFR, and LIFR may be possible on Wednesday. Not sure of that yet so haven't included LIFR conditions, but it will need to be watched. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...IFR/MVFR likely. Chc AM -SN. Wind NW 15G25 kts. Fri...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR/MVFR with -rasn. Wind NW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Rusk. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...Borghoff AVIATION...TDK