662 
FXUS64 KLCH 192012
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
312 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...

Wx map shows 1024 mb surface high over East Texas, building east
over the area. Despite the decreasing pressure gradient, winds 
have be a bit higher than initially expected this afternoon,
especially along and south of the I-10 corridor with speeds around
12-17 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph. Further north, winds slightly
less around 8-12 mph. Thus, had to increase the sustained winds 
and gusts a bit for this afternoon gridded forecast. Temperatures
have warmed up to the upper 60s to lower 70s. This coupled with
dewpoints in the upper 20s to lower 30s yields RH values 25-30%
range. Despite the recent rainfall, this yields an elevated fire
potential with a few grass fires already reported. Outdoor burning
for the next several hours is not advised. Satellite continues to
show scattered high thin cirrus streaming from the west, 
otherwise mostly sunny this afternoon.

Mostly clear expected this evening and overnight. Winds expected 
to sharply diminish to light and variable or calm by sunset as the
center of the high moves overhead. Expect Sunday morning lows in 
the upper 30s to lower 40s, except mid to upper 40s along the 
immediate coast. Sunday afternoon, the high will move east, with
east and eventually southeast winds expected late in the day.
Highs in the mid 70s expected. With southeast winds expected to
increase Sunday night into Monday morning, lows will range from
the mid/upper 40s across Central Louisiana to upper 50s across
Southeast Texas, and likely will be Sunday evening lows as
temperatures likely to remain steady or rise after midnight.

Monday will see a large and vigorous upper level and surface low 
over W TX/NM that is expected to lift northeastward across OK by 
Monday night. The first significant impulse expected to provide 
increased chances of thunderstorms, some likely reaching severe 
limits with localized flooding possible Monday afternoon over 
Southeast Texas and areawide Monday night. All guidance continues
good agreement, thus blended guidance continues to ramp up
precipitation chances significantly Monday afternoon over SE TX,
and areawide Monday night into Tuesday.

SPC Day 3 outlook (Monday and Monday Night) has Enhanced Risk
outline for I-10 northward over SE TX/W LA, with Slight-Marginal
risk elsewhere. With the tight pressure gradient and LLJ ranging 
from 45-65 knots, surface gradient winds will be strong, expecting
20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph areawide, and this is outside any
showers and thunderstorms. Thus, damaging winds will be very 
probable with the stronger to severe thunderstorms bringing the 
higher winds aloft down to the surface in addition to the outflow.
Large hail and tornadoes with isolated supercells will also be 
possible later Monday night as the shear profiles become more 
favorable. As always, just the right parameters have to come
together necessary for significant supercell development, and will be
better fine tuned in the next couple of days.

08

.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...

A frontal system will be expected to move through the area Tuesday 
into Wednesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. 
The Storm Prediction Center has parts of our area in a 30% risk of 
severe weather in their Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook with other 
parts of our area in a 15% risk. GFS model soundings indicate a 
possible damaging wind threat with significant speed shear and 
significant DCAPE values up to 1100 down to the coast. There appears 
to be a significant amount of low-level to mid-level moisture that 
could support the development of strong to severe thunderstorms. The 
freezing level is in the 600-650 mb range which could support hail 
but there does not appear to be as high of a risk for large hail at 
this time. The GFS and NAM are also showing the system to have a 
squall line structure as it moves through our area which may support 
the possibility for a damaging wind threat.

After the frontal system moves through the area, a cooldown will be 
expected for the middle of the week with below average temperatures 
and drier air as high pressure builds into the area. A modest warm 
up will be expected towards the end of the period.

55

&&

.MARINE...

Northerly winds will become more northeasterly this evening and
overnight as the center of high pressure slides east over Southeast
Texas and Louisiana. Winds will become easterly and gradually 
increase on Sunday, and southeasterly by Sunday afternoon as the 
high moves off to the east. Strong onshore winds are expected 
Monday through Tuesday as low pressure forms over the Southern 
Plains. Expect increased chances of showers and thunderstorms 
Monday afternoon though Tuesday, with some of the storms possibly 
reaching severe limits. By Tuesday night, a cold frontal passage 
will end the precipitation, and followed by offshore flow through 
Wednesday.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  40  76  47  75 /   0   0   0  40 
LCH  42  74  52  74 /   0   0   0  50 
LFT  42  76  51  77 /   0   0   0  20 
BPT  46  74  57  74 /   0   0   0  70 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through Sunday evening for GMZ470-
     472-475.


&&

$$