662 FXUS64 KLCH 192012 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 312 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 .SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]... Wx map shows 1024 mb surface high over East Texas, building east over the area. Despite the decreasing pressure gradient, winds have be a bit higher than initially expected this afternoon, especially along and south of the I-10 corridor with speeds around 12-17 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph. Further north, winds slightly less around 8-12 mph. Thus, had to increase the sustained winds and gusts a bit for this afternoon gridded forecast. Temperatures have warmed up to the upper 60s to lower 70s. This coupled with dewpoints in the upper 20s to lower 30s yields RH values 25-30% range. Despite the recent rainfall, this yields an elevated fire potential with a few grass fires already reported. Outdoor burning for the next several hours is not advised. Satellite continues to show scattered high thin cirrus streaming from the west, otherwise mostly sunny this afternoon. Mostly clear expected this evening and overnight. Winds expected to sharply diminish to light and variable or calm by sunset as the center of the high moves overhead. Expect Sunday morning lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, except mid to upper 40s along the immediate coast. Sunday afternoon, the high will move east, with east and eventually southeast winds expected late in the day. Highs in the mid 70s expected. With southeast winds expected to increase Sunday night into Monday morning, lows will range from the mid/upper 40s across Central Louisiana to upper 50s across Southeast Texas, and likely will be Sunday evening lows as temperatures likely to remain steady or rise after midnight. Monday will see a large and vigorous upper level and surface low over W TX/NM that is expected to lift northeastward across OK by Monday night. The first significant impulse expected to provide increased chances of thunderstorms, some likely reaching severe limits with localized flooding possible Monday afternoon over Southeast Texas and areawide Monday night. All guidance continues good agreement, thus blended guidance continues to ramp up precipitation chances significantly Monday afternoon over SE TX, and areawide Monday night into Tuesday. SPC Day 3 outlook (Monday and Monday Night) has Enhanced Risk outline for I-10 northward over SE TX/W LA, with Slight-Marginal risk elsewhere. With the tight pressure gradient and LLJ ranging from 45-65 knots, surface gradient winds will be strong, expecting 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph areawide, and this is outside any showers and thunderstorms. Thus, damaging winds will be very probable with the stronger to severe thunderstorms bringing the higher winds aloft down to the surface in addition to the outflow. Large hail and tornadoes with isolated supercells will also be possible later Monday night as the shear profiles become more favorable. As always, just the right parameters have to come together necessary for significant supercell development, and will be better fine tuned in the next couple of days. 08 .LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]... A frontal system will be expected to move through the area Tuesday into Wednesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of our area in a 30% risk of severe weather in their Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook with other parts of our area in a 15% risk. GFS model soundings indicate a possible damaging wind threat with significant speed shear and significant DCAPE values up to 1100 down to the coast. There appears to be a significant amount of low-level to mid-level moisture that could support the development of strong to severe thunderstorms. The freezing level is in the 600-650 mb range which could support hail but there does not appear to be as high of a risk for large hail at this time. The GFS and NAM are also showing the system to have a squall line structure as it moves through our area which may support the possibility for a damaging wind threat. After the frontal system moves through the area, a cooldown will be expected for the middle of the week with below average temperatures and drier air as high pressure builds into the area. A modest warm up will be expected towards the end of the period. 55 && .MARINE... Northerly winds will become more northeasterly this evening and overnight as the center of high pressure slides east over Southeast Texas and Louisiana. Winds will become easterly and gradually increase on Sunday, and southeasterly by Sunday afternoon as the high moves off to the east. Strong onshore winds are expected Monday through Tuesday as low pressure forms over the Southern Plains. Expect increased chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon though Tuesday, with some of the storms possibly reaching severe limits. By Tuesday night, a cold frontal passage will end the precipitation, and followed by offshore flow through Wednesday. 08 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 40 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 40 LCH 42 74 52 74 / 0 0 0 50 LFT 42 76 51 77 / 0 0 0 20 BPT 46 74 57 74 / 0 0 0 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through Sunday evening for GMZ470- 472-475. && $$