180 
FXUS64 KMOB 122207 CCA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
407 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...Zonal flow persists aloft 
over the local area since the area is located at the base of a deep 
upper trough. This feature will continue to move east, with upper 
ridging building and moving into the region through Sunday 
afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will move into the region 
through the evening and maintain its hold through much of the day on 
Sunday. However, by Sunday evening, the high pressure will begin to 
shift east. This pattern has brought very dry weather, as well as 
windy and chilly conditions, to the northern Gulf coast for this 
weekend!

Windy conditions continue this afternoon due to a strong and tight 
pressure gradient that developed after cold FROPA this morning. 
Surface observations show sustained northwest winds at around 15-25 
mph and frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph for most areas. A Wind 
Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM this evening area-wide. The 
pressure gradient will begin to relax late this afternoon and winds 
will decrease, with northerly winds at around 10-15 mph expected by 
mid-evening. Some wind gusts to around 20 mph are possible at the 
immediate coast. Additionally, it is chilly! Temperatures across 
inland areas are in the lower to mid 40s and in the mid to upper 40s 
over coastal counties. A few spots over the coast are around 50 
degrees. The dry weather will also lead to low relative humidity 
values this afternoon. RHs are expected to drop into the lower to 
mid 20s north of I-10 and into the upper 20s to lower 30s south of I-
10. In fact, the RH at Mobile Regional Airport is currently around 
20%, so RHs further north will likely be comparable or even less 
than this. The dry weather then continues into Sunday, with minimum 
RHs in the lower 20s inland and in the 20s to lower 30s near the 
coast. Although Red Flag criteria is not met today because of wet 
fuels, the dry and windy conditions will result in elevated fire 
weather concerns (especially today).

After chilly temperatures today, it will be even colder tonight. 
Lows will bottom out in the lower to mid 20s north of I-10 and drop 
into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees at the coast. The record low 
temperature for Mobile could potentially be tied or broken, as the 
forecast low is 26 degrees and the record low is 28 degrees (set 
back in 1932 and tied in 1993). At Pensacola, tonight's forecast low
of 30 degrees will get close, since the record low temperature is 28
degrees (set back in 1932). A Freeze Warning is in effect from 9 PM 
this evening to 9 AM Sunday morning. Be sure to take extra 
precaution, as these conditions can kill crops, new growth, and 
sensitive vegetation. A not as windy but mild day is then on tap for 
Sunday. Highs will be slightly warmer, in the mid 50s to around 60 
degrees. Skies will be clear and the LOW risk of rip currents will 
continue. /26

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...An upper trof 
near the northwestern states dives into the southern/central 
Plains on Monday. A surface low develops over the southern/central 
Plains in response, then accompanies the upper trof as it evolves
into an upper low which progresses across the northern Gulf coast
states through Tuesday night. A strong surface ridge over the 
region slowly weakens ahead of this system, and a warm front 
evolves over the north central/northeast Gulf Monday night as the 
surface low nears the lower Mississippi River valley. While the 
surface low is expected to continue eastward through Tuesday 
night, guidance is leaning towards this feature tracking over the
coastal counties or being confined to the marine area. This looks
to be due to the surface ridge not weakening quickly enough which
in turn limits how far north the warm front may advance ahead of 
the surface low. This in turn adds considerable uncertainty to 
how much instability may develop over the area before the system 
brings a cold front through the area. Currently, MLCAPE values 
range from 200-500 J/kg and shear values look low.  The Storm 
Prediction Center has mainly the western Florida panhandle 
outlooked for potential severe storm development, though this risk
area has been decreased since the earlier outlook likely due to
concerns about available instability. Will continue to monitor at
this point. While the severe potential is rather uncertain at 
this point, what's more certain is that this system will bring 
high rain chances to the area especially on Tuesday. Will have 
dry conditions through Monday then rain chances increase Monday 
night to likely over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama 
with chance pops further to the east. Categorical pops follow for 
the entire area on Tuesday, then dry conditions develop Tuesday 
night as the system exits to the east. Lows Sunday night range 
from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the coast, then
lows Monday night will be warmer and range from the upper 40s 
well inland to the mid/upper 50s near the coast. Highs on Monday 
will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s then trend a bit warmer on 
Tuesday to range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows Tuesday night
range from the upper 40s/near 50 inland to the lower 50s at the 
coast. A low risk of rip currents Sunday night will be followed by
a moderate risk on Monday then a high risk is expected on 
Tuesday. /29

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The upper low over 
the extreme southeast states moves off to the east through 
Thursday as another upper trof advances into the central states. 
A surface low develops over the southern Plains in response, then 
depending on how quickly the upper trof advances eastward, either
moves well off to the northeast through Saturday or slowly 
progresses across the northern Gulf coast states. Given the
uncertainties with how this plays out, after dry conditions
through Thursday will have chance pops on Friday and slight chance
to chance pops for Saturday and will continue to assess. A warming
trend follows through Thursday by which time highs will be in the
mid to upper 70s with similar values expected for Friday and
Saturday. Overnight lows likewise trend warmer with lower to mid
50s expected Thursday night and Friday night. /29

&&

.MARINE...Strong northwest winds late this afternoon are expected to 
ease through this evening and late tonight. Winds will also shift to 
be from the southeast Sunday night into Monday as surface high 
pressure passes north of the local area. Seas will subside through 
the weekend as well. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all 
marine zones through late this evening, with the Advisory dropping 
off for the bays and sounds by midnight but continuing for the open 
Gulf waters through late tonight/early Sunday morning. Southerly 
flow will then increase into Tuesday as another system approaches. 
Numerous showers and chances of thunderstorms are possible over the 
marine area on Tuesday with this system. As this passes to the east, 
northwest flow will take hold in its wake by Wednesday. /26

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning from 9 PM CST this evening to 9 AM CDT Sunday for 
     ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Freeze Warning from 9 PM CST this evening to 9 AM CDT Sunday for 
     FLZ201>206.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM CST this evening to 9 AM CDT Sunday for 
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ630>636.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob