180 FXUS64 KMOB 122207 CCA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Mobile AL 407 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022 .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...Zonal flow persists aloft over the local area since the area is located at the base of a deep upper trough. This feature will continue to move east, with upper ridging building and moving into the region through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will move into the region through the evening and maintain its hold through much of the day on Sunday. However, by Sunday evening, the high pressure will begin to shift east. This pattern has brought very dry weather, as well as windy and chilly conditions, to the northern Gulf coast for this weekend! Windy conditions continue this afternoon due to a strong and tight pressure gradient that developed after cold FROPA this morning. Surface observations show sustained northwest winds at around 15-25 mph and frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph for most areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM this evening area-wide. The pressure gradient will begin to relax late this afternoon and winds will decrease, with northerly winds at around 10-15 mph expected by mid-evening. Some wind gusts to around 20 mph are possible at the immediate coast. Additionally, it is chilly! Temperatures across inland areas are in the lower to mid 40s and in the mid to upper 40s over coastal counties. A few spots over the coast are around 50 degrees. The dry weather will also lead to low relative humidity values this afternoon. RHs are expected to drop into the lower to mid 20s north of I-10 and into the upper 20s to lower 30s south of I- 10. In fact, the RH at Mobile Regional Airport is currently around 20%, so RHs further north will likely be comparable or even less than this. The dry weather then continues into Sunday, with minimum RHs in the lower 20s inland and in the 20s to lower 30s near the coast. Although Red Flag criteria is not met today because of wet fuels, the dry and windy conditions will result in elevated fire weather concerns (especially today). After chilly temperatures today, it will be even colder tonight. Lows will bottom out in the lower to mid 20s north of I-10 and drop into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees at the coast. The record low temperature for Mobile could potentially be tied or broken, as the forecast low is 26 degrees and the record low is 28 degrees (set back in 1932 and tied in 1993). At Pensacola, tonight's forecast low of 30 degrees will get close, since the record low temperature is 28 degrees (set back in 1932). A Freeze Warning is in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM Sunday morning. Be sure to take extra precaution, as these conditions can kill crops, new growth, and sensitive vegetation. A not as windy but mild day is then on tap for Sunday. Highs will be slightly warmer, in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Skies will be clear and the LOW risk of rip currents will continue. /26 && .SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...An upper trof near the northwestern states dives into the southern/central Plains on Monday. A surface low develops over the southern/central Plains in response, then accompanies the upper trof as it evolves into an upper low which progresses across the northern Gulf coast states through Tuesday night. A strong surface ridge over the region slowly weakens ahead of this system, and a warm front evolves over the north central/northeast Gulf Monday night as the surface low nears the lower Mississippi River valley. While the surface low is expected to continue eastward through Tuesday night, guidance is leaning towards this feature tracking over the coastal counties or being confined to the marine area. This looks to be due to the surface ridge not weakening quickly enough which in turn limits how far north the warm front may advance ahead of the surface low. This in turn adds considerable uncertainty to how much instability may develop over the area before the system brings a cold front through the area. Currently, MLCAPE values range from 200-500 J/kg and shear values look low. The Storm Prediction Center has mainly the western Florida panhandle outlooked for potential severe storm development, though this risk area has been decreased since the earlier outlook likely due to concerns about available instability. Will continue to monitor at this point. While the severe potential is rather uncertain at this point, what's more certain is that this system will bring high rain chances to the area especially on Tuesday. Will have dry conditions through Monday then rain chances increase Monday night to likely over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama with chance pops further to the east. Categorical pops follow for the entire area on Tuesday, then dry conditions develop Tuesday night as the system exits to the east. Lows Sunday night range from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the coast, then lows Monday night will be warmer and range from the upper 40s well inland to the mid/upper 50s near the coast. Highs on Monday will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s then trend a bit warmer on Tuesday to range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows Tuesday night range from the upper 40s/near 50 inland to the lower 50s at the coast. A low risk of rip currents Sunday night will be followed by a moderate risk on Monday then a high risk is expected on Tuesday. /29 && .EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The upper low over the extreme southeast states moves off to the east through Thursday as another upper trof advances into the central states. A surface low develops over the southern Plains in response, then depending on how quickly the upper trof advances eastward, either moves well off to the northeast through Saturday or slowly progresses across the northern Gulf coast states. Given the uncertainties with how this plays out, after dry conditions through Thursday will have chance pops on Friday and slight chance to chance pops for Saturday and will continue to assess. A warming trend follows through Thursday by which time highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with similar values expected for Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows likewise trend warmer with lower to mid 50s expected Thursday night and Friday night. /29 && .MARINE...Strong northwest winds late this afternoon are expected to ease through this evening and late tonight. Winds will also shift to be from the southeast Sunday night into Monday as surface high pressure passes north of the local area. Seas will subside through the weekend as well. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all marine zones through late this evening, with the Advisory dropping off for the bays and sounds by midnight but continuing for the open Gulf waters through late tonight/early Sunday morning. Southerly flow will then increase into Tuesday as another system approaches. Numerous showers and chances of thunderstorms are possible over the marine area on Tuesday with this system. As this passes to the east, northwest flow will take hold in its wake by Wednesday. /26 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Freeze Warning from 9 PM CST this evening to 9 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ051>060-261>266. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Freeze Warning from 9 PM CST this evening to 9 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ201>206. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM CST this evening to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ630>636. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob