972 
FXUS64 KMOB 042349
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
549 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Generally VFR conditions prevail this evening
across the area with isolated spots experiencing some reduced
visibility from smoke due to ongoing controlled burns/wildfires. 
Some patchy fog may develop after midnight tonight, with areas of 
fog possible over southeastern MS. Generally anticipate VFR 
conditions to prevail tonight for the FL panhandle and inland 
portions of southwestern AL. The possibility for MVFR visibility 
where patchy to areas of fog develop exists elsewhere, mainly 
after midnight through sunrise. VFR conditions return for Saturday
mid-morning through the afternoon hours. MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022/ 

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...Upper level ridging will 
persist over the southeastern CONUS through today, but begin to 
become more zonal by Saturday as an upper level shortwave trough 
progresses northeast over the central Plains. By late Saturday 
afternoon, southwest flow will then develop aloft over the northern 
Gulf coast as the aforementioned shortwave moves into the Midwest. 
Surface high pressure will continue its hold over the region today, 
but will be pushed eastward as a low pressure system moves northeast 
from the central Plains up into the Midwest (coincident with the 
upper shortwave). This will aid in the return of moisture to the 
region on Saturday; although, PWATs will remain around an inch or 
less.

Overall, dry weather (no rain) will continue today and into 
Saturday. However, moisture will begin to slowly return to the 
region on Saturday as surface winds shift to be southeasterly today. 
In addition, model probabilities suggest the potential of patchy fog 
development, especially over southeast Mississippi and coastal 
Alabama tonight into early Saturday morning. Some areas of fog are 
possible over far southeastern Mississippi by Saturday morning as 
well. Any fog will dissipate by mid-morning, with breezy conditions 
developing area-wide by Saturday afternoon. Current temperatures 
over inland areas are in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Near the coast, 
temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s. Expect warmer overnight 
lows than we've seen recently. Temperatures tonight will likely only 
dip into the lower 50s north of I-10 and into the mid to upper 50s 
near the coast. Highs on Saturday are then anticipated to be similar 
to today, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s inland and 
the lower to mid 70s near the coast.

Lastly, a LOW risk of rip currents continues for area beaches 
through tonight. However, persistent southeast winds and swell will 
cause the rip current risk to increase by Saturday. A HIGH risk is 
then expected by Saturday evening. Headed to the beach this weekend? 
Make sure to remain vigilant and follow the advice of local beach 
officials and beach flags! /26

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Southwesterly 
flow aloft will be in place over our region through the short term 
period as large-scale troughing over the western US slowly pushes 
eastward and ridging remains positioned over the Florida peninsula. 
An upper-level shortwave rounds the base of the trough on Sunday and 
ejects northeastward across the Central Plains on Monday. At the 
surface, a large high pressure over the western Atlantic continues 
to usher in southeasterly to southerly winds over our area through 
Monday morning. Winds will gradually turn southwesterly by Monday 
afternoon as a cold front, associated with the ejecting shortwave, 
approaches. 

Persistent southeasterly flow will allow for low-level moisture to 
continue advecting in from the Gulf of Mexico. Dewpoints on Sunday 
quickly rise into the low to mid 60s, increasing further on Monday, 
with values approaching 70 degrees. Areas west of the Tombigbee 
River, where the highest moisture return looks to occur, may see 
some isolated to locally scattered showers on Sunday, but with the 
upper ridge in place, expecting any activity that does occur to 
remain light. By Monday, rain chances increase across the entire 
area as the cold front approaches the region. PWATs increase to 1.4 
to 1.7 inches ahead of the front due to deep layer southwesterly 
flow in place. Additionally, with decent low-level lapse rates, 
SBCAPE values look to increase to around 1000 J/kg by Monday 
afternoon. Therefore, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will 
likely push through the area, mainly in the late afternoon and 
evening hours as the front begins moving through the area. The 
front will likely start to slow and potentially stall over our 
region or just offshore, so rain chances look to continue through 
Monday night. Thunderstorm chances, however, will begin to diminish 
by the late evening/overnight hours as instability values lower with 
the loss of daytime heating. As far as severe weather potential, jet 
dynamics look to be displaced far enough to our north to not warrant 
any major concerns at this time. In fact, recent model guidance 
trends suggest a stronger upper ridge over Florida and a more 
sheared-out, faster moving jet ejection (hence why the front slows, 
weakens, and stalls near/over our region). With that being said, 
still will not rule out a couple isolated, stronger storms, 
especially for northwestern portions of our CWA. We will continue to 
monitor trends over the coming days. 

Highs will be quite warm, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 
80s for most areas, except for upper 70s along the coast. Lows 
Saturday night will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, increasing to 
low to mid 60s by Sunday night. Temperatures begin to lower for 
Monday night, with lows ranging from the upper 40s northwest to low 
60s southeast. Additionally, with onshore flow and increasing 
moisture, sea fog looks to return to the forecast for Sunday morning 
and possibly Monday morning. Finally, a HIGH risk of rip currents 
begins on Saturday night, lasting through the entire period. /96

EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...An unsettled weather 
pattern continues through much of the extended term. The front that 
sagged into our region on Monday will remain overhead, or just 
offshore on Tuesday. With deep layer moisture still in place, 
scattered to numerous showers will be possible throughout the day on 
Tuesday, into Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the forecast becomes low 
confidence as model solutions begin to diverge. The large-scale 
trough over the western US continues its eastward trek, and a 
shortwave trough rounds its base and ejects northeastward across the 
south-central US. A surface low looks to develop over the northern 
Gulf, in association with this ejecting shortwave, and push 
northeastward over the Gulf Coast. Models have come into better 
agreement regarding timing, bringing the low inland Wednesday 
afternoon/evening. The main question, however, is where the low will 
track. The GFS suggests that the low will move into the FL 
panhandle. This solution would favor keeping most, if not all of 
the region in the northern cold sector of this developing low, 
giving way to an overrunning rain event. The Euro, however, 
suggests that the low will move into SE Louisiana. If this 
solution pans out, this would put our area in the warm sector, 
bringing with it an increase in instability and favorable shear 
profiles. One thing to note is that recent GFS runs have been 
trending westward, so current forecast leans closer to the Euro 
solution, with thunderstorms returning to the forecast Wednesday 
afternoon and evening. Regardless of the outcome, flooding could 
be a concern through midweek, due to multiple rounds of rain 
starting on Monday through, at least, Thursday.

Temperatures are also of low confidence, especially for the first
half of the extended. The GFS MOS guidance keeps our region 
fairly cool on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the cold front 
stalling further south and the surface low pushing to our east, 
whereas the Euro MOS is as much as 10 degrees warmer. As 
previously stated, leaned closer to the Euro solution, and 
therefore, highs are forecast to range from the mid to upper 60s 
northwest, to low to mid 70s southeast. Lows will range from the 
upper 40s to low 50s northwest, and mid 50s southeast. /96

MARINE...A light southeasterly flow persists this afternoon. This 
onshore flow will become moderate to occasionally strong, along with 
building seas, late tonight and through the weekend. Operators of 
small craft should exercise caution, especially over the open Gulf 
waters, late tonight through early Saturday morning. By Monday, a 
cold front will approach from the west. This will likely move 
through late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with moderate 
offshore flow following in its wake. Small craft exercise caution 
conditions are likely across portions of the marine area from 
Saturday night through early next week. Moderate south/southeast 
flow is then expected to develop for midweek. /26

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through late Tuesday 
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through late Tuesday 
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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