972 FXUS64 KMOB 042349 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 549 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022 .AVIATION... 00Z issuance...Generally VFR conditions prevail this evening across the area with isolated spots experiencing some reduced visibility from smoke due to ongoing controlled burns/wildfires. Some patchy fog may develop after midnight tonight, with areas of fog possible over southeastern MS. Generally anticipate VFR conditions to prevail tonight for the FL panhandle and inland portions of southwestern AL. The possibility for MVFR visibility where patchy to areas of fog develop exists elsewhere, mainly after midnight through sunrise. VFR conditions return for Saturday mid-morning through the afternoon hours. MM/25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022/ NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...Upper level ridging will persist over the southeastern CONUS through today, but begin to become more zonal by Saturday as an upper level shortwave trough progresses northeast over the central Plains. By late Saturday afternoon, southwest flow will then develop aloft over the northern Gulf coast as the aforementioned shortwave moves into the Midwest. Surface high pressure will continue its hold over the region today, but will be pushed eastward as a low pressure system moves northeast from the central Plains up into the Midwest (coincident with the upper shortwave). This will aid in the return of moisture to the region on Saturday; although, PWATs will remain around an inch or less. Overall, dry weather (no rain) will continue today and into Saturday. However, moisture will begin to slowly return to the region on Saturday as surface winds shift to be southeasterly today. In addition, model probabilities suggest the potential of patchy fog development, especially over southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama tonight into early Saturday morning. Some areas of fog are possible over far southeastern Mississippi by Saturday morning as well. Any fog will dissipate by mid-morning, with breezy conditions developing area-wide by Saturday afternoon. Current temperatures over inland areas are in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Near the coast, temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s. Expect warmer overnight lows than we've seen recently. Temperatures tonight will likely only dip into the lower 50s north of I-10 and into the mid to upper 50s near the coast. Highs on Saturday are then anticipated to be similar to today, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s inland and the lower to mid 70s near the coast. Lastly, a LOW risk of rip currents continues for area beaches through tonight. However, persistent southeast winds and swell will cause the rip current risk to increase by Saturday. A HIGH risk is then expected by Saturday evening. Headed to the beach this weekend? Make sure to remain vigilant and follow the advice of local beach officials and beach flags! /26 SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Southwesterly flow aloft will be in place over our region through the short term period as large-scale troughing over the western US slowly pushes eastward and ridging remains positioned over the Florida peninsula. An upper-level shortwave rounds the base of the trough on Sunday and ejects northeastward across the Central Plains on Monday. At the surface, a large high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to usher in southeasterly to southerly winds over our area through Monday morning. Winds will gradually turn southwesterly by Monday afternoon as a cold front, associated with the ejecting shortwave, approaches. Persistent southeasterly flow will allow for low-level moisture to continue advecting in from the Gulf of Mexico. Dewpoints on Sunday quickly rise into the low to mid 60s, increasing further on Monday, with values approaching 70 degrees. Areas west of the Tombigbee River, where the highest moisture return looks to occur, may see some isolated to locally scattered showers on Sunday, but with the upper ridge in place, expecting any activity that does occur to remain light. By Monday, rain chances increase across the entire area as the cold front approaches the region. PWATs increase to 1.4 to 1.7 inches ahead of the front due to deep layer southwesterly flow in place. Additionally, with decent low-level lapse rates, SBCAPE values look to increase to around 1000 J/kg by Monday afternoon. Therefore, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will likely push through the area, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours as the front begins moving through the area. The front will likely start to slow and potentially stall over our region or just offshore, so rain chances look to continue through Monday night. Thunderstorm chances, however, will begin to diminish by the late evening/overnight hours as instability values lower with the loss of daytime heating. As far as severe weather potential, jet dynamics look to be displaced far enough to our north to not warrant any major concerns at this time. In fact, recent model guidance trends suggest a stronger upper ridge over Florida and a more sheared-out, faster moving jet ejection (hence why the front slows, weakens, and stalls near/over our region). With that being said, still will not rule out a couple isolated, stronger storms, especially for northwestern portions of our CWA. We will continue to monitor trends over the coming days. Highs will be quite warm, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s for most areas, except for upper 70s along the coast. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, increasing to low to mid 60s by Sunday night. Temperatures begin to lower for Monday night, with lows ranging from the upper 40s northwest to low 60s southeast. Additionally, with onshore flow and increasing moisture, sea fog looks to return to the forecast for Sunday morning and possibly Monday morning. Finally, a HIGH risk of rip currents begins on Saturday night, lasting through the entire period. /96 EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...An unsettled weather pattern continues through much of the extended term. The front that sagged into our region on Monday will remain overhead, or just offshore on Tuesday. With deep layer moisture still in place, scattered to numerous showers will be possible throughout the day on Tuesday, into Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the forecast becomes low confidence as model solutions begin to diverge. The large-scale trough over the western US continues its eastward trek, and a shortwave trough rounds its base and ejects northeastward across the south-central US. A surface low looks to develop over the northern Gulf, in association with this ejecting shortwave, and push northeastward over the Gulf Coast. Models have come into better agreement regarding timing, bringing the low inland Wednesday afternoon/evening. The main question, however, is where the low will track. The GFS suggests that the low will move into the FL panhandle. This solution would favor keeping most, if not all of the region in the northern cold sector of this developing low, giving way to an overrunning rain event. The Euro, however, suggests that the low will move into SE Louisiana. If this solution pans out, this would put our area in the warm sector, bringing with it an increase in instability and favorable shear profiles. One thing to note is that recent GFS runs have been trending westward, so current forecast leans closer to the Euro solution, with thunderstorms returning to the forecast Wednesday afternoon and evening. Regardless of the outcome, flooding could be a concern through midweek, due to multiple rounds of rain starting on Monday through, at least, Thursday. Temperatures are also of low confidence, especially for the first half of the extended. The GFS MOS guidance keeps our region fairly cool on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the cold front stalling further south and the surface low pushing to our east, whereas the Euro MOS is as much as 10 degrees warmer. As previously stated, leaned closer to the Euro solution, and therefore, highs are forecast to range from the mid to upper 60s northwest, to low to mid 70s southeast. Lows will range from the upper 40s to low 50s northwest, and mid 50s southeast. /96 MARINE...A light southeasterly flow persists this afternoon. This onshore flow will become moderate to occasionally strong, along with building seas, late tonight and through the weekend. Operators of small craft should exercise caution, especially over the open Gulf waters, late tonight through early Saturday morning. By Monday, a cold front will approach from the west. This will likely move through late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with moderate offshore flow following in its wake. Small craft exercise caution conditions are likely across portions of the marine area from Saturday night through early next week. Moderate south/southeast flow is then expected to develop for midweek. /26 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob