845 
FXUS62 KJAX 040556
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1256 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Saturday]

Prevailing VFR conditions through 18z today under departing high
cirrus. Light westerly winds near 5 kts at coastal terminals 
early this morning will shift NNE to NE by 15z at SSI with speeds 
near 12-14 kts and gusts near 20 kts as a backdoor frontal zone 
slides NE to WSW across the forecast area into the afternoon.
Expected increasing low-mid clouds near SSI in the afternoon trailing
the frontal zone, otherwise prevailing SKC for other terminals. 
ENE flow will funnel southward across FL terminals into the afternoon,
but with speeds generally weaker in the 8-10 kt range. 

Restriction potential to MVFR increases at SSI 21z-00z this
evening where MET MOS and SREF guidance indicate lower stratus
edging onshore. At this time trended toward FEW025. Across FL
terminals, fog/stratus potential increases after 03z near 
SGJ/CRG, then expands inland through 06z. Hard to tell where 
stratus verses fog delineation will set-up tonight, but at this 
time trended toward 6SM BR at both CRG and SGJ. Anticipate
expansion of fog and low stratus inland toward remaining terminals
through 12z Saturday, with stratus more likely at this time given
elevated boundary layer winds increasing to 15-20 kts from the 
SSE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [927 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Upper level ridge extending across the forecast area will continue
to bring dry weather conditions throughout the afternoon and into
Friday morning as the weak offshore trough moves off with high
pressure building in behind it from out of the north overnight. 
Overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 40s for
inland areas and into the lower 50s for areas near the coastline 
and along the St Johns River.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

High pressure will move off to the east by Saturday with high
pressure ridging continuing to influence the region resulting in
dry weather for the end of the week and the beginning of the
weekend. Prevailing flow will shift about to be from out of the
east-southeast leading to an increase in moisture levels resulting
in raised Min RH values into the 30s and 40s by Saturday. Chances
for late night and early morning fog developments are also
anticipated Friday going into Saturday. Temperatures will
experience a warming trend during this period with high
temperatures reaching up into the mid to upper 80s for inland
areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s nearer to the coastline.
Overnight low temperatures will similarly warm into the weekend
with min temps being in the upper 50s and lower 60s by Saturday
night.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Increased chances for showers and storms by Tuesday and Wednesday
as as the high pressure ridge over the area weakens and a warm
moist southwesterly flow builds in over southeastern Georgia and
northeastern Florida ahead of an advancing cold front moving in
from out of the northwest and then stalling over the forecast area
by Wednesday. Warming trend will continue on into the beginning of
next week with temperatures reaching up to near record level daily
highs on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will drop by midweek with
temps becoming closer to the seasonal average, with cooler temps
occurring further north in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.


.MARINE...

High pressure centered over the southeastern states will shift
eastward on Friday. Seas of 3-4 feet offshore this afternoon will
briefly subside to 2-3 feet overnight. Meanwhile, a stronger high
pressure center that will be building over the Great Lakes 
tonight will shift southeastward over the Mid-Atlantic region by 
Friday, with this feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard 
and resulting in strengthening north-northeasterly winds by 
Friday afternoon. Seas will build to 3-5 feet from Friday through
Saturday.

This high pressure center will shift eastward during the weekend,
resulting in breezy southeasterly winds and gradually building 
seas. Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop offshore by 
Sunday evening as seas increase to 5-7 feet, while near shore seas
approach Caution levels by Sunday night. A cold front will then 
enter the southeastern states on Monday night and is expected to 
cross our local waters on Tuesday. Winds will shift to southerly 
on Monday in advance of this front, which will likely bring 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to our area on 
Tuesday.

Rip Currents: A long period easterly ocean swell will keep a
moderate rip current risk in place at all area beaches today and
Friday. Strengthening southeasterly winds and building seas will
keep a moderate risk in place on Saturday, with a high risk
possible by Sunday and Monday as a northeasterly swell builds.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A very dry air mass will remain in place across our region through
Friday, with long durations of critically low humidity values 
forecast this afternoon and again on Friday afternoon at inland
locations. Minimum relative humidity values may also briefly
approach critical thresholds at coastal locations early this
afternoon before values increase behind the inland-moving Atlantic
sea breeze boundary. Mainly westerly surface and transport winds 
of 5-10 mph are forecast through around sunset, resulting in
marginally low daytime dispersion values across portions of our
region, especially at coastal locations, where the sea breeze will
shift surface winds to easterly, with sustained speeds increasing
to around 10 mph by the mid-afternoon hours. Surface and 
transport winds will shift to northeasterly during the predawn 
hours on Friday, with light speeds expected through mid-morning. 
Transport winds will then shift to east-northeasterly with 
increasing speeds during the afternoon hours, resulting in good 
dispersion values at inland locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  81  51  83  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SSI  69  57  76  61  78 /  10   0   0   0   0 
JAX  79  54  79  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  75  58  77  63  79 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GNV  86  53  84  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0 
OCF  86  53  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&