845 FXUS62 KJAX 040556 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1256 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Saturday] Prevailing VFR conditions through 18z today under departing high cirrus. Light westerly winds near 5 kts at coastal terminals early this morning will shift NNE to NE by 15z at SSI with speeds near 12-14 kts and gusts near 20 kts as a backdoor frontal zone slides NE to WSW across the forecast area into the afternoon. Expected increasing low-mid clouds near SSI in the afternoon trailing the frontal zone, otherwise prevailing SKC for other terminals. ENE flow will funnel southward across FL terminals into the afternoon, but with speeds generally weaker in the 8-10 kt range. Restriction potential to MVFR increases at SSI 21z-00z this evening where MET MOS and SREF guidance indicate lower stratus edging onshore. At this time trended toward FEW025. Across FL terminals, fog/stratus potential increases after 03z near SGJ/CRG, then expands inland through 06z. Hard to tell where stratus verses fog delineation will set-up tonight, but at this time trended toward 6SM BR at both CRG and SGJ. Anticipate expansion of fog and low stratus inland toward remaining terminals through 12z Saturday, with stratus more likely at this time given elevated boundary layer winds increasing to 15-20 kts from the SSE. && .PREV DISCUSSION [927 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Upper level ridge extending across the forecast area will continue to bring dry weather conditions throughout the afternoon and into Friday morning as the weak offshore trough moves off with high pressure building in behind it from out of the north overnight. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 40s for inland areas and into the lower 50s for areas near the coastline and along the St Johns River. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]... High pressure will move off to the east by Saturday with high pressure ridging continuing to influence the region resulting in dry weather for the end of the week and the beginning of the weekend. Prevailing flow will shift about to be from out of the east-southeast leading to an increase in moisture levels resulting in raised Min RH values into the 30s and 40s by Saturday. Chances for late night and early morning fog developments are also anticipated Friday going into Saturday. Temperatures will experience a warming trend during this period with high temperatures reaching up into the mid to upper 80s for inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s nearer to the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will similarly warm into the weekend with min temps being in the upper 50s and lower 60s by Saturday night. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]... Increased chances for showers and storms by Tuesday and Wednesday as as the high pressure ridge over the area weakens and a warm moist southwesterly flow builds in over southeastern Georgia and northeastern Florida ahead of an advancing cold front moving in from out of the northwest and then stalling over the forecast area by Wednesday. Warming trend will continue on into the beginning of next week with temperatures reaching up to near record level daily highs on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will drop by midweek with temps becoming closer to the seasonal average, with cooler temps occurring further north in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. .MARINE... High pressure centered over the southeastern states will shift eastward on Friday. Seas of 3-4 feet offshore this afternoon will briefly subside to 2-3 feet overnight. Meanwhile, a stronger high pressure center that will be building over the Great Lakes tonight will shift southeastward over the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday, with this feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard and resulting in strengthening north-northeasterly winds by Friday afternoon. Seas will build to 3-5 feet from Friday through Saturday. This high pressure center will shift eastward during the weekend, resulting in breezy southeasterly winds and gradually building seas. Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop offshore by Sunday evening as seas increase to 5-7 feet, while near shore seas approach Caution levels by Sunday night. A cold front will then enter the southeastern states on Monday night and is expected to cross our local waters on Tuesday. Winds will shift to southerly on Monday in advance of this front, which will likely bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to our area on Tuesday. Rip Currents: A long period easterly ocean swell will keep a moderate rip current risk in place at all area beaches today and Friday. Strengthening southeasterly winds and building seas will keep a moderate risk in place on Saturday, with a high risk possible by Sunday and Monday as a northeasterly swell builds. .FIRE WEATHER... A very dry air mass will remain in place across our region through Friday, with long durations of critically low humidity values forecast this afternoon and again on Friday afternoon at inland locations. Minimum relative humidity values may also briefly approach critical thresholds at coastal locations early this afternoon before values increase behind the inland-moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary. Mainly westerly surface and transport winds of 5-10 mph are forecast through around sunset, resulting in marginally low daytime dispersion values across portions of our region, especially at coastal locations, where the sea breeze will shift surface winds to easterly, with sustained speeds increasing to around 10 mph by the mid-afternoon hours. Surface and transport winds will shift to northeasterly during the predawn hours on Friday, with light speeds expected through mid-morning. Transport winds will then shift to east-northeasterly with increasing speeds during the afternoon hours, resulting in good dispersion values at inland locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 81 51 83 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 SSI 69 57 76 61 78 / 10 0 0 0 0 JAX 79 54 79 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 SGJ 75 58 77 63 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 GNV 86 53 84 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 OCF 86 53 86 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&