183 
FXUS64 KAMA 241120
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
520 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022

.AVIATION...
Some low clouds are lingering near KAMA at the beginning of the
12Z TAF period. These clouds may or may not bring MVFR conditions
as they are showing signs of wanting to clear out. However, model
guidance has these clouds sticking around through around 16z.
Otherwise expect VFR conditions for all three terminals with light
winds for Panhandle standards. 

Hoffeditz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022/ 

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...

A mid to upper level trough is running from southern California
into Montana as of this writing. The center of the low pressure 
is approaching the Four Corners Region. Based on water vapor 
imagery, dry air is running from the El Paso region and southern 
NM up through the FA into central KS. All the moisture is to the 
northwest in Colorado and to the southeast through most of eastern
TX and eastern OK into MO and IL. Guidance suggest that this dry 
slotting will continue to take place for the FA. This has lead to 
the removal of PoPs that once took place in the northern and 
eastern TX Panhandle for this morning that were present in 
previous forecast packages. 

Between now and through this evening the only moisture to be 
present will be a shallow layer around H7 with some scattered to 
broken low clouds expected to stick around most of the day. With 
the approaching upper level trough, a jet maxima around 100kts at
H5 downstream of the axis is currently passing over the area. The
left entrance region of the H5 jet will create a leeside low in 
eastern NM this afternoon, creating subsidence drawing down lower
dewpoints to the surface to the west. This also aid in some 
warmer H85 temperatures to come into the western third of the 
combined Panhandles. The leeside low will bring some breezy westerly
winds into the southwestern TX Panhandle during the afternoon
hours. This will create a push of warm air moving into the
southwest (seen in H85 temperatures as well) allowing the SW TX 
Panhandle to warm into the 40s. Conversely with the H85 
temperatures below freezing over the rest of the FA, these areas 
will struggle to leave the 30s with the eastern OK Panhandle even 
struggling to leave the upper 20s. 

Overnight tonight the cold air will move back over the entire FA
with lows dropping into the low teens for the southern half of the
FA and single digits for the northern half. Calm winds and clear
skies are looking to possibly tank temperatures a couple degrees
more than most of guidance as well, especially in those cool 
spots across the FA. Friday afternoon will be another day where 
cold and warm air battle out over the area. H85 temperatures a few
degrees below zero will be present in the eastern two thirds to 
half of the FA Friday afternoon. In the west H85 temperatures will
be approaching 3 to 5 degrees (Celsius). The western half of the 
forecast area will be able to make it into the 40s to lower 50s 
while the eastern half gets maybe into the upper 30s. High clouds 
are progged to be present especially in the southeastern TX 
Panhandle keeping this area from warming to its full potential 
especially with the cold temperatures aloft. 

Hoffeditz

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday Night...

A fairly quiet extended forecast.  High pressure will begin to build 
over the central CONUS as the cold air from the previous system 
exits to the east. Saturday still looks to be a bit on the cool side 
as we won't have the southerly winds that we need to start warming 
up. Temperatures on Saturday look to be in the 40s to near 50. 
Sunday warmer air will start to work it's way up from the southwest 
and the highs are expected to be in the low to mid 60s Panhandle 
wide.  As the ridge continues to strengthen over the Four Corners 
each day, the temperatures will continue to gradually warm. By 
Wednesday our highs could be in the mid to upper 70s across the
Panhandles. No precipitation expected for the extended. 

Weber

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for the 
     following zones: Carson...Dallam...Hansford...Hartley...
     Hutchinson...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...
     Randall...Sherman.

OK...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for the 
     following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

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