183 FXUS64 KAMA 241120 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 520 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 .AVIATION... Some low clouds are lingering near KAMA at the beginning of the 12Z TAF period. These clouds may or may not bring MVFR conditions as they are showing signs of wanting to clear out. However, model guidance has these clouds sticking around through around 16z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions for all three terminals with light winds for Panhandle standards. Hoffeditz && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022/ SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night... A mid to upper level trough is running from southern California into Montana as of this writing. The center of the low pressure is approaching the Four Corners Region. Based on water vapor imagery, dry air is running from the El Paso region and southern NM up through the FA into central KS. All the moisture is to the northwest in Colorado and to the southeast through most of eastern TX and eastern OK into MO and IL. Guidance suggest that this dry slotting will continue to take place for the FA. This has lead to the removal of PoPs that once took place in the northern and eastern TX Panhandle for this morning that were present in previous forecast packages. Between now and through this evening the only moisture to be present will be a shallow layer around H7 with some scattered to broken low clouds expected to stick around most of the day. With the approaching upper level trough, a jet maxima around 100kts at H5 downstream of the axis is currently passing over the area. The left entrance region of the H5 jet will create a leeside low in eastern NM this afternoon, creating subsidence drawing down lower dewpoints to the surface to the west. This also aid in some warmer H85 temperatures to come into the western third of the combined Panhandles. The leeside low will bring some breezy westerly winds into the southwestern TX Panhandle during the afternoon hours. This will create a push of warm air moving into the southwest (seen in H85 temperatures as well) allowing the SW TX Panhandle to warm into the 40s. Conversely with the H85 temperatures below freezing over the rest of the FA, these areas will struggle to leave the 30s with the eastern OK Panhandle even struggling to leave the upper 20s. Overnight tonight the cold air will move back over the entire FA with lows dropping into the low teens for the southern half of the FA and single digits for the northern half. Calm winds and clear skies are looking to possibly tank temperatures a couple degrees more than most of guidance as well, especially in those cool spots across the FA. Friday afternoon will be another day where cold and warm air battle out over the area. H85 temperatures a few degrees below zero will be present in the eastern two thirds to half of the FA Friday afternoon. In the west H85 temperatures will be approaching 3 to 5 degrees (Celsius). The western half of the forecast area will be able to make it into the 40s to lower 50s while the eastern half gets maybe into the upper 30s. High clouds are progged to be present especially in the southeastern TX Panhandle keeping this area from warming to its full potential especially with the cold temperatures aloft. Hoffeditz LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday Night... A fairly quiet extended forecast. High pressure will begin to build over the central CONUS as the cold air from the previous system exits to the east. Saturday still looks to be a bit on the cool side as we won't have the southerly winds that we need to start warming up. Temperatures on Saturday look to be in the 40s to near 50. Sunday warmer air will start to work it's way up from the southwest and the highs are expected to be in the low to mid 60s Panhandle wide. As the ridge continues to strengthen over the Four Corners each day, the temperatures will continue to gradually warm. By Wednesday our highs could be in the mid to upper 70s across the Panhandles. No precipitation expected for the extended. Weber && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Carson...Dallam...Hansford...Hartley... Hutchinson...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter... Randall...Sherman. OK...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas. && $$ 36/89