070 
FXUS62 KJAX 220038
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
738 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022

...MILD LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WITH FOG POTENTIAL INCREASING...

.UPDATE...A few light showers will continue to stream eastward
across our far northwest GA zones this evening as a weak mid level
short wave trough streams over a lifting coastal-trough/hybrid
warm front lifting northward across GA/SC. The shower activity is
expected to lift north of our GA zones through midnight as a
mid/upper level ridge across the Caribbean amplifies northward.

The main weather impact tonight will be shallow ground across 
portions of SE GA and NE FL, especially for areas along and east 
of the Highway 301 corridor toward the I-95 corridor. Weaker 
boundary layer winds are expected tonight as the 850 mb ridge 
builds over N FL and with the influx of low level moisture under 
ESE flow, expect a little better fog coverage tonight, with some 
father expansion inland. Included patchy fog for eastern SE GA 
(east of Waycross) and toward the Atlantic coast, and extended the
fog potential zone southward across NE FL down the St. Johns 
River basin with areas of fog for Metro JAX where EMC/NAM12/SREF 
guidance indicated the potential for periods of visibility < 1 
mile near sunrise. 

Mild low temperatures will range in the mid/upper 50s, about 8-12
degrees about climo values. 

&&

.MARINE...Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions still headlined
for our outer mainly FL waters where 6 ft combined seas near the
Gulf Stream are still likely, with seas 3-5 ft most common in the
outer waters to 2-4 ft for the nearshore waters. ESE to SE winds
tonight will range from 10-15 kts over the local waters with some
patchy fog near the Atlantic coast and inland estuaries toward
sunrise. 

Rip Currents: High rip current risk was extended through tonight
for NE FL beaches. Moderate rip current risk is likely for all
local beaches Tuesday. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [644 PM EST]...

.Near Term.../through Tuesday/...

A ridge of high pressure will extend across the region from the
northeast Tonight and Tuesday. A wave of low pressure will pass to 
the northwest of the region this afternoon through Tonight. Moisture
will extend into SE GA from this system this afternoon, resulting in
added cloud cover, and the potential for a few showers. 

Clouds will decrease during the day Tuesday. Temperatures will 
continue above normal this period. Lows in the mid to upper 50s 
expected Tonight. Highs away from the coast on Tuesday will be in 
the lower 80s. An onshore southeast flow will keep readings cooler 
near the coast.


.Short Term.../Tuesday night through Friday/...

High pressure centered to the east, will continue to ridge across 
the area through Thursday, with dry weather expected. This pattern 
will result in southerly flow, which will keep temperatures above
normal. Lows this period will be in the upper 50s to around 60. 
Highs Wednesday and Thursday, will range from the mid to upper 70s 
at the coast, to the middle 80s inland. 

A cold front will move southeast across area during the day Friday. 
The boundary is expected to weaken as it passes through, with 
limited moisture. As a result, the passage is expected to be dry.
Highs on Friday, will continue to be well above normal with highs
generally in the 80 to 85 degree range. Readings a little cooler 
at the coast expected.


.Long Term.../Friday night through Monday/...

The cold front is expected to stall just to the south Friday night, 
then lift back north across the area Saturday. The boundary will 
move to the north of the area Saturday night, as a wave moves east 
along it across the southeastern US. The boundary will then move
southeast across area Sunday into Sunday night. Shower chances are
expected as the boundary passes through, but chances will be on the 
low side, as the best energy with wave on the boundary moves to 
the northeast. High pressure will build from the northwest Monday.

Temperatures will trend near normal through Sunday, then below 
normal for Monday. There are significant differences in temperature
forecasts in the long range models Monday, due to forecast timing. 
This difference lends a degree of uncertainty in temperature 
forecast for early next week.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]

Prevailing VFR through 04-06z, then another round of shallow ground
fog is expected to develop through sunrise as low level moisture 
increased across areas along and east of the Highway 301 corridor
under ESE winds today. Winds prevail of the ESE tonight but
decrease to near calm inland to 5-7 kts at the coast afternoon
06z. High and mid clouds will continue to stream across SE GA and
portions of the NE FL through midnight, then the elevated clouds 
will progressively lift north of the local area through sunrise as
the mid/upper level ridge across the Caribbean amplifies. Despite
MOS not hitting fog potential hard tonight, based on persistence 
and the position of the 850 mb ridge building over north FL, opted
to include TEMPO groups for MVFR to IFR restrictions for all 
terminals less GNV where drier air mixed down today (IFR for VQQ).
Fog will lift into a stratus deck after sunrise Tuesday with 
prevailing VFR after 13-14z under prevailing SE flow, increasing 
to near 10-12 kts at CRG and SGJ in the afternoon with the sea 
breeze push with inland diurnally enhanced cumulus in the
afternoon with bases 5-6 kft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  56  81  57  84  58 /  20   0   0   0   0 
SSI  57  69  59  74  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
JAX  58  78  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  59  76  59  78  58 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GNV  57  83  59  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0 
OCF  56  83  60  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&