070 FXUS62 KJAX 220038 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 738 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022 ...MILD LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WITH FOG POTENTIAL INCREASING... .UPDATE...A few light showers will continue to stream eastward across our far northwest GA zones this evening as a weak mid level short wave trough streams over a lifting coastal-trough/hybrid warm front lifting northward across GA/SC. The shower activity is expected to lift north of our GA zones through midnight as a mid/upper level ridge across the Caribbean amplifies northward. The main weather impact tonight will be shallow ground across portions of SE GA and NE FL, especially for areas along and east of the Highway 301 corridor toward the I-95 corridor. Weaker boundary layer winds are expected tonight as the 850 mb ridge builds over N FL and with the influx of low level moisture under ESE flow, expect a little better fog coverage tonight, with some father expansion inland. Included patchy fog for eastern SE GA (east of Waycross) and toward the Atlantic coast, and extended the fog potential zone southward across NE FL down the St. Johns River basin with areas of fog for Metro JAX where EMC/NAM12/SREF guidance indicated the potential for periods of visibility < 1 mile near sunrise. Mild low temperatures will range in the mid/upper 50s, about 8-12 degrees about climo values. && .MARINE...Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions still headlined for our outer mainly FL waters where 6 ft combined seas near the Gulf Stream are still likely, with seas 3-5 ft most common in the outer waters to 2-4 ft for the nearshore waters. ESE to SE winds tonight will range from 10-15 kts over the local waters with some patchy fog near the Atlantic coast and inland estuaries toward sunrise. Rip Currents: High rip current risk was extended through tonight for NE FL beaches. Moderate rip current risk is likely for all local beaches Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION [644 PM EST]... .Near Term.../through Tuesday/... A ridge of high pressure will extend across the region from the northeast Tonight and Tuesday. A wave of low pressure will pass to the northwest of the region this afternoon through Tonight. Moisture will extend into SE GA from this system this afternoon, resulting in added cloud cover, and the potential for a few showers. Clouds will decrease during the day Tuesday. Temperatures will continue above normal this period. Lows in the mid to upper 50s expected Tonight. Highs away from the coast on Tuesday will be in the lower 80s. An onshore southeast flow will keep readings cooler near the coast. .Short Term.../Tuesday night through Friday/... High pressure centered to the east, will continue to ridge across the area through Thursday, with dry weather expected. This pattern will result in southerly flow, which will keep temperatures above normal. Lows this period will be in the upper 50s to around 60. Highs Wednesday and Thursday, will range from the mid to upper 70s at the coast, to the middle 80s inland. A cold front will move southeast across area during the day Friday. The boundary is expected to weaken as it passes through, with limited moisture. As a result, the passage is expected to be dry. Highs on Friday, will continue to be well above normal with highs generally in the 80 to 85 degree range. Readings a little cooler at the coast expected. .Long Term.../Friday night through Monday/... The cold front is expected to stall just to the south Friday night, then lift back north across the area Saturday. The boundary will move to the north of the area Saturday night, as a wave moves east along it across the southeastern US. The boundary will then move southeast across area Sunday into Sunday night. Shower chances are expected as the boundary passes through, but chances will be on the low side, as the best energy with wave on the boundary moves to the northeast. High pressure will build from the northwest Monday. Temperatures will trend near normal through Sunday, then below normal for Monday. There are significant differences in temperature forecasts in the long range models Monday, due to forecast timing. This difference lends a degree of uncertainty in temperature forecast for early next week. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Wednesday] Prevailing VFR through 04-06z, then another round of shallow ground fog is expected to develop through sunrise as low level moisture increased across areas along and east of the Highway 301 corridor under ESE winds today. Winds prevail of the ESE tonight but decrease to near calm inland to 5-7 kts at the coast afternoon 06z. High and mid clouds will continue to stream across SE GA and portions of the NE FL through midnight, then the elevated clouds will progressively lift north of the local area through sunrise as the mid/upper level ridge across the Caribbean amplifies. Despite MOS not hitting fog potential hard tonight, based on persistence and the position of the 850 mb ridge building over north FL, opted to include TEMPO groups for MVFR to IFR restrictions for all terminals less GNV where drier air mixed down today (IFR for VQQ). Fog will lift into a stratus deck after sunrise Tuesday with prevailing VFR after 13-14z under prevailing SE flow, increasing to near 10-12 kts at CRG and SGJ in the afternoon with the sea breeze push with inland diurnally enhanced cumulus in the afternoon with bases 5-6 kft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 56 81 57 84 58 / 20 0 0 0 0 SSI 57 69 59 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 JAX 58 78 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 SGJ 59 76 59 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 GNV 57 83 59 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 OCF 56 83 60 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. GA...None. AM...None. &&