064 
FXUS62 KJAX 171343
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
843 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...BREEZY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...

Brief patchy fog at sunrise this morning has dissipated and rest
of forecast remains on track with breezy Southeast to South winds
developing late this morning and continuing this afternoon at 15
to 20 mph with gusts around 30 mph. Partly sunny and mild with
near record Max Temps in the lower/middle 80s inland, while the
onshore SE winds at the Atlantic Coast will hold Max temps in the
70s. Slight increase in atmospheric moisture with Precipitable
Water Amounts (PWATs) closer to 1 inch today, but even with
diurnal heating expect any isolated shower coverage to remain less
than 20 percent through the afternoon hours and mainly over the
Atlantic Coastal Waters, although some sprinkles will be possible
at any time this afternoon from any of the heavy diurnal Cumulus
clouds that develop over the land areas of NE FL/SE GA. 

Record Maximum High Temperatures for Today 2/17 at climate sites...
JAX 83/1956...GNV 86/2019...CRG 82/2018...AMG 82/2019...SSI 80/1945

South to Southwest winds remain elevated tonight at 5-10 mph and
will make it tough for any widespread fog development except for
potential advective type fog event that may translate inland from
the NE Gulf of Mexico and move inland across inland NE FL during
the overnight hours. Very mild overnight with low temps only
falling into the lower/middle 60s ahead of approaching frontal
boundary. Some widely scattered pre-frontal showers are expected
across inland SE GA as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [556 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Ridging aloft will briefly build over the FL peninsula today and
will shift eastward across the Bahamas tonight as troughing slowly
evolves over the Great Lakes and Plains states. A potent shortwave
trough pivoting through the Desert Southwest will continue to spin
up low pressure near the Red River Valley of northern Texas along
a lengthy cold front, and ridging to our southeast will then 
deflect this developing low pressure center quickly northeastward 
across the Ozarks this morning and then through the Ohio Valley by
this evening. This weather pattern will propel a cold front 
through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this 
afternoon and evening, with high pressure quickly building over 
the Southern Plains in the wake of this front later today and 
tonight.

The expansive surface ridge over the north Atlantic will keep a
tight pressure gradient in place today across our region, with
breezy southeasterly winds developing during the mid to late
morning hours. Rising heights aloft and decreasing coverage of
stratocumulus will allow temperatures to soar to near record
levels at most inland locations this afternoon, where highs will
reach the low and mid 80s. These values will challenge daily
records (see Climate section below for details). Onshore winds
should keep coastal highs in the mid to upper 70s, except lower
70s for the southeast GA barrier islands. 

Low pressure will continue to strengthen as it accelerates
northeastward across the Appalachians and New England overnight,
with this system's trailing cold front decelerating as it
progresses through the southeastern states. Low level winds will
shift to southerly overnight, and our local pressure gradient will
begin to relax after midnight, setting the stage for sea fog
development over the Gulf waters adjacent to the FL Big Bend and
Nature coast as well as over the near shore waters adjacent to
southeast GA. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms along the cold
front will move across central GA/southern AL/FL panhandle
overnight, with this activity then weakening during the predawn
hours as it approaches upper portions of the
Altamaha/Alapaha/Ocmulgee Rivers. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and possibly an isolated low-topped thunderstorm will
likely move across locations to the northwest of Waycross and to
the west of Lake City before sunrise on Friday. Veering low level
flow should advect low stratus and potentially areas of dense fog
across southern portions of the Suwannee Valley and north central
FL during the predawn hours, and dense sea fog developing over 
the near shore waters north of Mayport should expand towards 
coastal communities as well due to dewpoint temperatures rising to
the low and mid 60s. Lows tonight will only fall to the mid and
upper 60s, which is close to what our daytime high temperatures
should be in mid-February. These values will be about 17 to 23 
degrees above climatology.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Sunday]...

Friday...A cold front will move southeast across forecast area
during the day. The boundary will weaken as it passes through, 
but could be enough heating ahead of it to provide for a few 
thunderstorms, especially across NE FL Friday afternoon. Highs 
Friday will be stratified from northwest to southeast, based on 
frontal timing. With current timing, expect highs in the lower to 
mid 70s SE GA, to the upper 70s to around 80 NE FL. By Friday 
evening, the cold front will pass well through FL peninsula with a
weak northwesterly flow and CAA in the wake of the front with 
lows in the mid to upper 40s north of I-10 and in the 50s south of
I-10. 

High pressure will build north of the Saturday, supporting a dry 
weekend. Cold advection will yield a little below normal
temperature trend for Saturday (highs 65 to 70) despite ample 
sunshine. The high will build more toward the northeast Saturday 
night, with mainly clear skies expected. Lows will be on the 
cooler than normal side, especially well inland. 

The high will build further to the northeast on Sunday near 
the mid Atlantic coast, leading to an increasingly onshore flow. 
Mostly sunny skies will be expected. Inland, away from the 
influence of the relatively cooler sea surface temperatures,
highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. However, highs closer 
to the coast will be in the upper 60s to 70.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Wednesday]...

Surface high pressure will reside well northeast, then east this
period. Next upper level trough forecast to move into the 
southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest Monday and the dig into 
Baja CA by Wednesday. Onshore southeast flow Monday transitions to
tapping into the Gulf of Mexico with a southwest flow by 
Wednesday as a cold front moves from the Mid South into Northern 
Alabama/Northern Georgia. The focus for isolated rain chances will
be across the Altamaha River Basin on Monday as weak wave of low 
pressure develops across the Southeastern US early next week, but 
most of the precipitation associated with this wave is expected to
stay to the north of the region Tuesday. And isolated chances 
again near Altamaha River Basin Wednesday ahead of cold front. 

Temperatures will trend above normal this period. Inland highs in 
the mid 80s will be common Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Friday]

Periods of IFR visibilities will be possible through around 13Z at
GNV and VQQ. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at 
least 13Z at the regional terminals. MVFR ceilings of 1,500 - 
2,500 feet are expected to develop at the regional terminals 
towards 13Z, followed by ceilings lifting to VFR by 17Z. Dense fog
may begin to develop towards 06Z Friday at GNV and SSI. East- 
southeasterly surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots 
overnight at SGJ, with surface speeds elsewhere expected to remain
below 5 knots through around 12Z. Southeasterly surface winds 
will then increase to 5-10 knots by 14Z, followed by sustained 
speeds increasing to 10-15 knots with frequent gusts of 20-25 
knots after 15Z. Surface winds will then shift to southerly 
towards 00Z as sustained surface speeds decrease to 5-10 knots, 
with occasional gusts to 15 knots expected through at least 06Z 
Friday at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals. Dense fog and low
stratus may develop at GNV, VQQ, and SSI after 06Z, with IFR
conditions possible.


.MARINE...

Strong high pressure centered southeast of the Canadian Maritime
region will move eastward today ahead of a cold front that will
enter the southeastern states this evening. Strong southeasterly
winds and elevated seas will persist through Friday, with Small
Craft Advisories continuing offshore through Friday afternoon,
where seas of 6-8 feet today and tonight will diminish to 5-7 feet
on Friday. We have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the near
shore waters adjacent to northeast FL through the mid- morning 
hours today, as seas near the buoy adjacent to St. Augustine 
(41117) continue to run around 6.5 feet. Small Craft should 
continue to Exercise Caution in the near shore waters adjacent to
southeast GA, where seas of 4-6 feet will continue through 
Friday. 

The cold front will weaken as it crosses our local waters 
on Friday afternoon, accompanied by widely scattered showers. High
pressure will briefly build towards the southeastern states in 
the wake of this frontal passage on Friday night, resulting in a 
brief increase in northwesterly winds. Speeds offshore will reach
Caution levels of 15-20 knots from late Friday night through
Saturday night. A stronger high pressure center will then build 
southeastward from the Ohio Valley towards the Mid-Atlantic 
region on Saturday night and Sunday, resulting in northerly winds 
on Saturday shifting to northeasterly by Saturday evening, with 
another brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible 
offshore, where seas will build to 5-7 feet. Caution level seas of
4-6 feet are expected for the near shore waters adjacent to
northeast FL on Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure will 
then gradually weaken as it progresses off the Mid-Atlantic coast
early next week, resulting in winds shifting to southeasterly.
Seas in the offshore waters will likely remain at Caution levels
on Sunday and Monday.

Rip Currents: Strong southeasterly winds and breakers of 4-5 feet
will keep a high risk in place at the northeast FL beaches today,
and we have extended this high risk to include the southeast GA
beaches. A long period east-southeasterly ocean swell will keep a
moderate risk in place at all area beaches from Friday through the
weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A moistening trend will continue today with SSE to Southerly flow. 
Dew points will rise into the 60s today. Elevated dispersions and 
dry conditions areawide today with transport winds from the south
at 16 to 20 knots. Areas of fog expected with swly flow off of 
the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front. Wetting rain is possible 
Friday with scattered showers associated with a cold front. Some 
storms are possible Friday along the front, particularly over NE 
FL. Transport winds are forecast to shift out of the northwest 
after frontal passage. A drier/cooler airmass then arrives heading
into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  83  64  75  39  65 /   0  20  40   0   0 
SSI  69  60  73  45  62 /   0  10  50   0   0 
JAX  82  64  80  46  67 /  10  10  40  10   0 
SGJ  77  63  80  51  66 /  10  20  30  10   0 
GNV  84  63  79  51  69 /   0  20  30   0   0 
OCF  85  63  80  54  71 /   0  20  20   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal 
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal 
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Friday for Waters from 
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 
     to 60 NM.

&&