064 FXUS62 KJAX 171343 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 843 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 ...BREEZY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON... .UPDATE... Brief patchy fog at sunrise this morning has dissipated and rest of forecast remains on track with breezy Southeast to South winds developing late this morning and continuing this afternoon at 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 30 mph. Partly sunny and mild with near record Max Temps in the lower/middle 80s inland, while the onshore SE winds at the Atlantic Coast will hold Max temps in the 70s. Slight increase in atmospheric moisture with Precipitable Water Amounts (PWATs) closer to 1 inch today, but even with diurnal heating expect any isolated shower coverage to remain less than 20 percent through the afternoon hours and mainly over the Atlantic Coastal Waters, although some sprinkles will be possible at any time this afternoon from any of the heavy diurnal Cumulus clouds that develop over the land areas of NE FL/SE GA. Record Maximum High Temperatures for Today 2/17 at climate sites... JAX 83/1956...GNV 86/2019...CRG 82/2018...AMG 82/2019...SSI 80/1945 South to Southwest winds remain elevated tonight at 5-10 mph and will make it tough for any widespread fog development except for potential advective type fog event that may translate inland from the NE Gulf of Mexico and move inland across inland NE FL during the overnight hours. Very mild overnight with low temps only falling into the lower/middle 60s ahead of approaching frontal boundary. Some widely scattered pre-frontal showers are expected across inland SE GA as well. && .PREV DISCUSSION [556 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Ridging aloft will briefly build over the FL peninsula today and will shift eastward across the Bahamas tonight as troughing slowly evolves over the Great Lakes and Plains states. A potent shortwave trough pivoting through the Desert Southwest will continue to spin up low pressure near the Red River Valley of northern Texas along a lengthy cold front, and ridging to our southeast will then deflect this developing low pressure center quickly northeastward across the Ozarks this morning and then through the Ohio Valley by this evening. This weather pattern will propel a cold front through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon and evening, with high pressure quickly building over the Southern Plains in the wake of this front later today and tonight. The expansive surface ridge over the north Atlantic will keep a tight pressure gradient in place today across our region, with breezy southeasterly winds developing during the mid to late morning hours. Rising heights aloft and decreasing coverage of stratocumulus will allow temperatures to soar to near record levels at most inland locations this afternoon, where highs will reach the low and mid 80s. These values will challenge daily records (see Climate section below for details). Onshore winds should keep coastal highs in the mid to upper 70s, except lower 70s for the southeast GA barrier islands. Low pressure will continue to strengthen as it accelerates northeastward across the Appalachians and New England overnight, with this system's trailing cold front decelerating as it progresses through the southeastern states. Low level winds will shift to southerly overnight, and our local pressure gradient will begin to relax after midnight, setting the stage for sea fog development over the Gulf waters adjacent to the FL Big Bend and Nature coast as well as over the near shore waters adjacent to southeast GA. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms along the cold front will move across central GA/southern AL/FL panhandle overnight, with this activity then weakening during the predawn hours as it approaches upper portions of the Altamaha/Alapaha/Ocmulgee Rivers. Isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated low-topped thunderstorm will likely move across locations to the northwest of Waycross and to the west of Lake City before sunrise on Friday. Veering low level flow should advect low stratus and potentially areas of dense fog across southern portions of the Suwannee Valley and north central FL during the predawn hours, and dense sea fog developing over the near shore waters north of Mayport should expand towards coastal communities as well due to dewpoint temperatures rising to the low and mid 60s. Lows tonight will only fall to the mid and upper 60s, which is close to what our daytime high temperatures should be in mid-February. These values will be about 17 to 23 degrees above climatology. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Sunday]... Friday...A cold front will move southeast across forecast area during the day. The boundary will weaken as it passes through, but could be enough heating ahead of it to provide for a few thunderstorms, especially across NE FL Friday afternoon. Highs Friday will be stratified from northwest to southeast, based on frontal timing. With current timing, expect highs in the lower to mid 70s SE GA, to the upper 70s to around 80 NE FL. By Friday evening, the cold front will pass well through FL peninsula with a weak northwesterly flow and CAA in the wake of the front with lows in the mid to upper 40s north of I-10 and in the 50s south of I-10. High pressure will build north of the Saturday, supporting a dry weekend. Cold advection will yield a little below normal temperature trend for Saturday (highs 65 to 70) despite ample sunshine. The high will build more toward the northeast Saturday night, with mainly clear skies expected. Lows will be on the cooler than normal side, especially well inland. The high will build further to the northeast on Sunday near the mid Atlantic coast, leading to an increasingly onshore flow. Mostly sunny skies will be expected. Inland, away from the influence of the relatively cooler sea surface temperatures, highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. However, highs closer to the coast will be in the upper 60s to 70. .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Wednesday]... Surface high pressure will reside well northeast, then east this period. Next upper level trough forecast to move into the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest Monday and the dig into Baja CA by Wednesday. Onshore southeast flow Monday transitions to tapping into the Gulf of Mexico with a southwest flow by Wednesday as a cold front moves from the Mid South into Northern Alabama/Northern Georgia. The focus for isolated rain chances will be across the Altamaha River Basin on Monday as weak wave of low pressure develops across the Southeastern US early next week, but most of the precipitation associated with this wave is expected to stay to the north of the region Tuesday. And isolated chances again near Altamaha River Basin Wednesday ahead of cold front. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. Inland highs in the mid 80s will be common Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Friday] Periods of IFR visibilities will be possible through around 13Z at GNV and VQQ. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at least 13Z at the regional terminals. MVFR ceilings of 1,500 - 2,500 feet are expected to develop at the regional terminals towards 13Z, followed by ceilings lifting to VFR by 17Z. Dense fog may begin to develop towards 06Z Friday at GNV and SSI. East- southeasterly surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots overnight at SGJ, with surface speeds elsewhere expected to remain below 5 knots through around 12Z. Southeasterly surface winds will then increase to 5-10 knots by 14Z, followed by sustained speeds increasing to 10-15 knots with frequent gusts of 20-25 knots after 15Z. Surface winds will then shift to southerly towards 00Z as sustained surface speeds decrease to 5-10 knots, with occasional gusts to 15 knots expected through at least 06Z Friday at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals. Dense fog and low stratus may develop at GNV, VQQ, and SSI after 06Z, with IFR conditions possible. .MARINE... Strong high pressure centered southeast of the Canadian Maritime region will move eastward today ahead of a cold front that will enter the southeastern states this evening. Strong southeasterly winds and elevated seas will persist through Friday, with Small Craft Advisories continuing offshore through Friday afternoon, where seas of 6-8 feet today and tonight will diminish to 5-7 feet on Friday. We have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL through the mid- morning hours today, as seas near the buoy adjacent to St. Augustine (41117) continue to run around 6.5 feet. Small Craft should continue to Exercise Caution in the near shore waters adjacent to southeast GA, where seas of 4-6 feet will continue through Friday. The cold front will weaken as it crosses our local waters on Friday afternoon, accompanied by widely scattered showers. High pressure will briefly build towards the southeastern states in the wake of this frontal passage on Friday night, resulting in a brief increase in northwesterly winds. Speeds offshore will reach Caution levels of 15-20 knots from late Friday night through Saturday night. A stronger high pressure center will then build southeastward from the Ohio Valley towards the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday night and Sunday, resulting in northerly winds on Saturday shifting to northeasterly by Saturday evening, with another brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible offshore, where seas will build to 5-7 feet. Caution level seas of 4-6 feet are expected for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL on Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure will then gradually weaken as it progresses off the Mid-Atlantic coast early next week, resulting in winds shifting to southeasterly. Seas in the offshore waters will likely remain at Caution levels on Sunday and Monday. Rip Currents: Strong southeasterly winds and breakers of 4-5 feet will keep a high risk in place at the northeast FL beaches today, and we have extended this high risk to include the southeast GA beaches. A long period east-southeasterly ocean swell will keep a moderate risk in place at all area beaches from Friday through the weekend. .FIRE WEATHER... A moistening trend will continue today with SSE to Southerly flow. Dew points will rise into the 60s today. Elevated dispersions and dry conditions areawide today with transport winds from the south at 16 to 20 knots. Areas of fog expected with swly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front. Wetting rain is possible Friday with scattered showers associated with a cold front. Some storms are possible Friday along the front, particularly over NE FL. Transport winds are forecast to shift out of the northwest after frontal passage. A drier/cooler airmass then arrives heading into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 64 75 39 65 / 0 20 40 0 0 SSI 69 60 73 45 62 / 0 10 50 0 0 JAX 82 64 80 46 67 / 10 10 40 10 0 SGJ 77 63 80 51 66 / 10 20 30 10 0 GNV 84 63 79 51 69 / 0 20 30 0 0 OCF 85 63 80 54 71 / 0 20 20 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Friday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. &&