711 
FXUS63 KFGF 081610
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1010 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022

The westerly wind push has passed through the entire FA now, with
most locations now sitting at 32F or above (except around the Lake
of the Woods). Temperatures should peak between now and the early
afternoon before starting to fall again. Despite these mild
temperatures, webcams are showing some minor drifting in open
country west of the Red River Valley. This is resulting in some
slushy wet or snow cover spots on the roads. As temperatures fall
through the late afternoon and tonight, these surfaces should
become slippery again. The wind speeds will be in or near wind
advisory criteria west of the Valley late this morning through the
afternoon. A Wind Advisory is already in effect for most of this
area, however in coordination with NWS Aberdeen, will expand it 
into Sargent and Ransom counties as well.

UPDATE Issued at 656 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022

West wind and warm push pushing into the eastern RRV at 13z with
warm air approaching Hallock, Crookston, Ada and Fergus Falls.
High clouds have moved east and mainly clear this morning. Area of
clouds associated with 500 mb trough moving into SE Saskatchewan
and these will spread SE into E ND thru the morning/afternoon.
Idea of scattered precipitation seems reasonable. Rain shower
reported in Yorkton SK at 12z. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022

Warm west wind shift is moving into the western part of the Red
River at 09z. Watching personal wx stations and ND DOT sites and
seeing about 15 degree rise in 10 minutes as it moves in. It will
continue to progress east through the valley the next 1-2 hours
and eastward into MN thereafter. Due to higher terrain around Lake
Itasca that area may warm first in MN before lower elevations to
the west closer to the Red. All locations in the forecast are
expected to be above freezing 17z-18z.  

We are cooling today at 925 mb and above despite warming at the
sfc. Do expect after that quick jump temps to hold steady into the
early aftn and begin to fall mid to late aftn and thereafter. 500
mb trough moves into E ND/NW MN this aftn/eve with center of 500
mb low near Kenora this evening Coldest temps at 500 mb move into
E ND this aftn and with warmer temps at sfc enough instability 
(showwalters +2 to +3) to generate scattered showers this aftn E 
ND into NW MN. Then this evening/tonight the focus for 
precipitation chances will be tied closer to 500 mb low center
over Lake of the Woods region. Ptype should be a mix bag of
rain/snow in E ND/RRV with predominately snow this evening/tonight
in NW MN where around an inch is possible Baudette/Bemidji.  

For winds today...windy mainly E ND/RRV. Did throw out a wind
advisory for mainly this aftn for Devils Lake/Langdon to Valley
City where sustained winds around 30 mph and gusts to 45 mph are
possible. Borderline situation, but it matches up with BIS.

Wednesday colder and breezy/windy with potential for morning light
snow mainly RRV and east. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022

Overview...

The primary opportunity for impactful weather will come with a quick 
moving clipper Thursday into Friday. Although there is still some 
uncertainty with this system, there will likely be some 
precipitation impacts as a result. Otherwise, generally above normal 
temperatures look to persist, with quieter weather anticipated for 
the weekend ahead. 

Wednesday night through Friday...

Wednesday evening may see some lingering light snow showers across 
northwestern Minnesota, but impacts should be minimal. The main 
event will then begin to get underway on Thursday as a shortwave 
embedded within northwesterly flow aloft begins to affect the 
region. Accompanying this impending shortwave will be a strong 
westerly wind which will introduce significant WAA to the region. As 
a result, warm, above normal temperatures in the 30s are 
anticipated on Thursday ahead of the system. Ensemble guidance is 
gaining some certainty in the overall idea that there will be 
precipitation impacts, with the main question being the exact 
location of these impacts. The highest certainty exists with snow 
potential across northwestern Minnesota. NBM probabilities of 24 
hour snowfall exceeding 1" are in the 60-80% range across the Lake 
of the Woods area, and in the 20-50% range for the remainder of 
northwestern and west central Minnesota. Further westward, the 
predominant precipitation type will likely be rain, owing to the 
substantial WAA working into the FA. There will also be the 
possibility for a rain/snow mix along the temperature gradient. 
Impressive pressure falls as the system moves through the area will 
also introduce gusty winds to the region with this system. These 
winds will likely persist into Friday as the system departs to the 
east. As this occurs, CAA will begin to overtake the region once 
more bringing cooler temperatures for Friday. Within this CAA 
regime, some light snow showers will also be possible on Friday, but 
predictability is low at this time, due to their transient nature.

Saturday through Monday...

Moving into the weekend, much quieter weather is anticipated as 
ridging over the western CONUS works to stifle shortwave 
progressions through the northwesterly flow aloft. CAA and clearing 
skies will work to bring cooler temperatures to the area for 
Saturday. This looks to be a short lived feature, however, as 
temperatures climb back up above normal and then look to moderate 
from the late weekend into early next week. There are some signals 
for another clipper system to bring light snow to northwestern 
Minnesota on Monday, but confidence in this system is low at this 
time. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022

Starting of mostly clear but we will see some stratocu clouds that
are in southeastern Saskatchewan move southeast into the Devils
Lake basin mid morning and then into the RRV and NW MN midday and
aftn. Timing in TAFs was approximate. Wind gusts 35kts DVL area 
with 28-30 kts GFK/FAR/TVF this aftn. Scattered precipitation this
aftn with higher chances in NW MN.  


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-007-014-015-
     024-026-028-029-038-054.

MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Rick
AVIATION...Riddle