711 FXUS63 KFGF 081610 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1010 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1009 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022 The westerly wind push has passed through the entire FA now, with most locations now sitting at 32F or above (except around the Lake of the Woods). Temperatures should peak between now and the early afternoon before starting to fall again. Despite these mild temperatures, webcams are showing some minor drifting in open country west of the Red River Valley. This is resulting in some slushy wet or snow cover spots on the roads. As temperatures fall through the late afternoon and tonight, these surfaces should become slippery again. The wind speeds will be in or near wind advisory criteria west of the Valley late this morning through the afternoon. A Wind Advisory is already in effect for most of this area, however in coordination with NWS Aberdeen, will expand it into Sargent and Ransom counties as well. UPDATE Issued at 656 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022 West wind and warm push pushing into the eastern RRV at 13z with warm air approaching Hallock, Crookston, Ada and Fergus Falls. High clouds have moved east and mainly clear this morning. Area of clouds associated with 500 mb trough moving into SE Saskatchewan and these will spread SE into E ND thru the morning/afternoon. Idea of scattered precipitation seems reasonable. Rain shower reported in Yorkton SK at 12z. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022 Warm west wind shift is moving into the western part of the Red River at 09z. Watching personal wx stations and ND DOT sites and seeing about 15 degree rise in 10 minutes as it moves in. It will continue to progress east through the valley the next 1-2 hours and eastward into MN thereafter. Due to higher terrain around Lake Itasca that area may warm first in MN before lower elevations to the west closer to the Red. All locations in the forecast are expected to be above freezing 17z-18z. We are cooling today at 925 mb and above despite warming at the sfc. Do expect after that quick jump temps to hold steady into the early aftn and begin to fall mid to late aftn and thereafter. 500 mb trough moves into E ND/NW MN this aftn/eve with center of 500 mb low near Kenora this evening Coldest temps at 500 mb move into E ND this aftn and with warmer temps at sfc enough instability (showwalters +2 to +3) to generate scattered showers this aftn E ND into NW MN. Then this evening/tonight the focus for precipitation chances will be tied closer to 500 mb low center over Lake of the Woods region. Ptype should be a mix bag of rain/snow in E ND/RRV with predominately snow this evening/tonight in NW MN where around an inch is possible Baudette/Bemidji. For winds today...windy mainly E ND/RRV. Did throw out a wind advisory for mainly this aftn for Devils Lake/Langdon to Valley City where sustained winds around 30 mph and gusts to 45 mph are possible. Borderline situation, but it matches up with BIS. Wednesday colder and breezy/windy with potential for morning light snow mainly RRV and east. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022 Overview... The primary opportunity for impactful weather will come with a quick moving clipper Thursday into Friday. Although there is still some uncertainty with this system, there will likely be some precipitation impacts as a result. Otherwise, generally above normal temperatures look to persist, with quieter weather anticipated for the weekend ahead. Wednesday night through Friday... Wednesday evening may see some lingering light snow showers across northwestern Minnesota, but impacts should be minimal. The main event will then begin to get underway on Thursday as a shortwave embedded within northwesterly flow aloft begins to affect the region. Accompanying this impending shortwave will be a strong westerly wind which will introduce significant WAA to the region. As a result, warm, above normal temperatures in the 30s are anticipated on Thursday ahead of the system. Ensemble guidance is gaining some certainty in the overall idea that there will be precipitation impacts, with the main question being the exact location of these impacts. The highest certainty exists with snow potential across northwestern Minnesota. NBM probabilities of 24 hour snowfall exceeding 1" are in the 60-80% range across the Lake of the Woods area, and in the 20-50% range for the remainder of northwestern and west central Minnesota. Further westward, the predominant precipitation type will likely be rain, owing to the substantial WAA working into the FA. There will also be the possibility for a rain/snow mix along the temperature gradient. Impressive pressure falls as the system moves through the area will also introduce gusty winds to the region with this system. These winds will likely persist into Friday as the system departs to the east. As this occurs, CAA will begin to overtake the region once more bringing cooler temperatures for Friday. Within this CAA regime, some light snow showers will also be possible on Friday, but predictability is low at this time, due to their transient nature. Saturday through Monday... Moving into the weekend, much quieter weather is anticipated as ridging over the western CONUS works to stifle shortwave progressions through the northwesterly flow aloft. CAA and clearing skies will work to bring cooler temperatures to the area for Saturday. This looks to be a short lived feature, however, as temperatures climb back up above normal and then look to moderate from the late weekend into early next week. There are some signals for another clipper system to bring light snow to northwestern Minnesota on Monday, but confidence in this system is low at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 656 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022 Starting of mostly clear but we will see some stratocu clouds that are in southeastern Saskatchewan move southeast into the Devils Lake basin mid morning and then into the RRV and NW MN midday and aftn. Timing in TAFs was approximate. Wind gusts 35kts DVL area with 28-30 kts GFK/FAR/TVF this aftn. Scattered precipitation this aftn with higher chances in NW MN. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-007-014-015- 024-026-028-029-038-054. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Godon SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...Rick AVIATION...Riddle