625 
FXUS63 KLMK 260736
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
236 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022

Strong 1035mb surface high located over IA this morning will build 
continue to build in over the Ohio Valley during the day. Very cold 
air has been associated with this feature as temperatures across 
IA/MN/WI/northern IL & northern IN have been below zero this 
morning. While we won't be that cold, even the slightest winds we've 
had overnight will make it feel like it is in the teens and at times 
the single digits this morning. 

Sfc high will slowly work across the Ohio Valley today and while 
there will be plenty of sunshine temperatures will be chilly and 
range 10-15 degrees below normal even for late January. Highs will 
range from the mid/upper 20s across most of our area with the 
possibility of low 30s to just near freezing near the TN/KY border. 

Overnight the sfc high slowly moves eastward and winds will be light 
and variable, while the upper level pattern flattens out some over 
the region. Winds start to make a shift out of the south but with 
good radiational cooling from another clear night and light winds, 
it will be another cold night. Lows bottom out into the low/mid 
teens.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022

...Light snow accumulation expected Thursday night into Friday...

Thursday - Friday: Temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler 
than normal on Thursday as some slightly warmer air comes into the 
region ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will sweep 
through the region Thursday night and will force a band of light 
snow. A light dusting of accumulation will be possible late Thursday 
night as temperatures tumble into the mid 20s.

On Friday an upper trough will sharpen and become less positively 
tilted as it crosses the Mississippi Valley. The best upward motion 
ahead of this feature will be coincident with moderate to high RH 
through the DGZ. Frontogenetical forcing will be weak, but lapse 
rates, theta-e surfaces, and EPV suggest some weak convective 
potential. Snow squall parameter is progged to be below 1, but still 
non-zero. So, it looks like we'll have scattered snow showers that 
would have the potential to drop some quick, but light, 
accumulations. Areas east of I-65, where there may be some slight 
orographic assistance plus the best diurnal timing for showers, will 
be the most likely to see accumulations around an inch...possibly 
slightly more in spots that get multiple showers. It will be a 
blustery day with wind gusts of 20-25mph, possibly slightly enhanced 
in snow showers, and wind chills in the teens and 20s. 

Saturday through Tuesday:  Saturday looks dry but cold as a long 
north-south ridge of high pressure moves through. Lows that morning 
will generally be around 10 but sheltered spots with snow on the 
ground will drop into the single digits.

On Sunday a clipper will cruise through the Great Lakes and into the 
upper Ohio Valley, keeping its associated precipitation to our north 
and northeast. We'll get into some warm advection with near normal 
afternoon temperatures on Sunday...with warm air taking the mercury 
well into the 40s in return flow behind sprawling high pressure 
along the East Coast. The next wet system will approach from the 
west on Tuesday but its main effects will likely hold off until 
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Warm air ahead of the system will give 
us high temperatures well into the 50s Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1235 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 

IMPACTS: VFR Conditions all TAF sites for the period

Surface observations so a strong 1036mb sfc high over northern 
IA/southern MN. This has resulted in clear skies over the Ohio 
Valley and a northerly wind around 5 to 10 mph at times. That will 
be the prevailing wind for most of the TAF cycle. High pressure will 
build in during the day and keep skies clear to mostly clear. Winds 
will become more light and variable as we go into the evening. 

CONFIDENCE: High on all elements


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...BTN
Long Term...13
Aviation...BTN