625 FXUS63 KLMK 260736 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 236 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 225 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Strong 1035mb surface high located over IA this morning will build continue to build in over the Ohio Valley during the day. Very cold air has been associated with this feature as temperatures across IA/MN/WI/northern IL & northern IN have been below zero this morning. While we won't be that cold, even the slightest winds we've had overnight will make it feel like it is in the teens and at times the single digits this morning. Sfc high will slowly work across the Ohio Valley today and while there will be plenty of sunshine temperatures will be chilly and range 10-15 degrees below normal even for late January. Highs will range from the mid/upper 20s across most of our area with the possibility of low 30s to just near freezing near the TN/KY border. Overnight the sfc high slowly moves eastward and winds will be light and variable, while the upper level pattern flattens out some over the region. Winds start to make a shift out of the south but with good radiational cooling from another clear night and light winds, it will be another cold night. Lows bottom out into the low/mid teens. && .Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 202 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 ...Light snow accumulation expected Thursday night into Friday... Thursday - Friday: Temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler than normal on Thursday as some slightly warmer air comes into the region ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will sweep through the region Thursday night and will force a band of light snow. A light dusting of accumulation will be possible late Thursday night as temperatures tumble into the mid 20s. On Friday an upper trough will sharpen and become less positively tilted as it crosses the Mississippi Valley. The best upward motion ahead of this feature will be coincident with moderate to high RH through the DGZ. Frontogenetical forcing will be weak, but lapse rates, theta-e surfaces, and EPV suggest some weak convective potential. Snow squall parameter is progged to be below 1, but still non-zero. So, it looks like we'll have scattered snow showers that would have the potential to drop some quick, but light, accumulations. Areas east of I-65, where there may be some slight orographic assistance plus the best diurnal timing for showers, will be the most likely to see accumulations around an inch...possibly slightly more in spots that get multiple showers. It will be a blustery day with wind gusts of 20-25mph, possibly slightly enhanced in snow showers, and wind chills in the teens and 20s. Saturday through Tuesday: Saturday looks dry but cold as a long north-south ridge of high pressure moves through. Lows that morning will generally be around 10 but sheltered spots with snow on the ground will drop into the single digits. On Sunday a clipper will cruise through the Great Lakes and into the upper Ohio Valley, keeping its associated precipitation to our north and northeast. We'll get into some warm advection with near normal afternoon temperatures on Sunday...with warm air taking the mercury well into the 40s in return flow behind sprawling high pressure along the East Coast. The next wet system will approach from the west on Tuesday but its main effects will likely hold off until Tuesday night into Wednesday. Warm air ahead of the system will give us high temperatures well into the 50s Tuesday. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1235 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 IMPACTS: VFR Conditions all TAF sites for the period Surface observations so a strong 1036mb sfc high over northern IA/southern MN. This has resulted in clear skies over the Ohio Valley and a northerly wind around 5 to 10 mph at times. That will be the prevailing wind for most of the TAF cycle. High pressure will build in during the day and keep skies clear to mostly clear. Winds will become more light and variable as we go into the evening. CONFIDENCE: High on all elements && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Short Term...BTN Long Term...13 Aviation...BTN