386 
FXUS64 KTSA 232327
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
527 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 153 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

Temperatures have warmed nicely across the area with many
locations in the 50s (some nearing 60) with only a few thin high
clouds to note across NE OK. A very subtle shortwave will pass
overnight which will bring a few high clouds but expect clear to
mostly clear conditions for most through tonight with lows a 
little warmer than this morning overall.

Snider

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday) 
Issued at 153 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

The warming trend continues through tomorrow as winds turn to be 
more southwesterly promoting a warming and drying wind over the 
region. A large trough continues to sit NE of the area allowing 
subsidence to dominate the region thus leading to mostly clear 
skies for most through tomorrow. 

The storm system that had been eyeing our area tomorrow night 
into Tuesday that past couple of days continues to shift southward
to the point that precipitation is no longer expected across the 
area. The latest GEFS ensembles are also in agreement with only 1 
member painting really light precipitation along the Red River. 
Thus, will continue to keep the area dry through this period. 

The deterministic and ensemble guidance is also laying off the 
potential for wintry precipitation over the western portion of the
CWA for Tuesday into Wednesday. The latest guidance is keeping 
the activity confined to western OK or the OK/TX panhandle where a
potent shortwave dives southward. There is some disagreement 
between the ECMWF and GFS with the ECMWF dampening the wave 
quickly west of the CWA while the GFS maintains the integrity of 
the wave a little longer with some potential for precipitation 
across far SE OK into early Thursday morning before the wave 
fizzles out. Ensemble guidance is not excited about this feature 
persisting into our area and producing precip thus will keep this 
aspect of the forecast dry as well. 

The upcoming weekend sees a broad trough push through the area
Friday which will knock temperatures down a little. The rest of 
the weekend will see rising mid level heights with a warming trend
through Sunday. Guidance is in relatively good agreement of a 
prominent short wave deepening as a cutoff low late Sunday. This 
may provide our next best chance for precipitation but this is 
still several days out. 

Snider

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A Cold
front will pass through NE OK after 18z Monday with a shift to
north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  63  28  37 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   29  63  32  46 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   31  64  32  45 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   32  63  25  34 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   30  60  26  39 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   32  60  25  36 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   31  62  29  40 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   32  59  22  33 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   32  64  30  40 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   30  60  36  52 /   0  10   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...14