386 FXUS64 KTSA 232327 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 527 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 153 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 Temperatures have warmed nicely across the area with many locations in the 50s (some nearing 60) with only a few thin high clouds to note across NE OK. A very subtle shortwave will pass overnight which will bring a few high clouds but expect clear to mostly clear conditions for most through tonight with lows a little warmer than this morning overall. Snider && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 153 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 The warming trend continues through tomorrow as winds turn to be more southwesterly promoting a warming and drying wind over the region. A large trough continues to sit NE of the area allowing subsidence to dominate the region thus leading to mostly clear skies for most through tomorrow. The storm system that had been eyeing our area tomorrow night into Tuesday that past couple of days continues to shift southward to the point that precipitation is no longer expected across the area. The latest GEFS ensembles are also in agreement with only 1 member painting really light precipitation along the Red River. Thus, will continue to keep the area dry through this period. The deterministic and ensemble guidance is also laying off the potential for wintry precipitation over the western portion of the CWA for Tuesday into Wednesday. The latest guidance is keeping the activity confined to western OK or the OK/TX panhandle where a potent shortwave dives southward. There is some disagreement between the ECMWF and GFS with the ECMWF dampening the wave quickly west of the CWA while the GFS maintains the integrity of the wave a little longer with some potential for precipitation across far SE OK into early Thursday morning before the wave fizzles out. Ensemble guidance is not excited about this feature persisting into our area and producing precip thus will keep this aspect of the forecast dry as well. The upcoming weekend sees a broad trough push through the area Friday which will knock temperatures down a little. The rest of the weekend will see rising mid level heights with a warming trend through Sunday. Guidance is in relatively good agreement of a prominent short wave deepening as a cutoff low late Sunday. This may provide our next best chance for precipitation but this is still several days out. Snider && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A Cold front will pass through NE OK after 18z Monday with a shift to north winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 34 63 28 37 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 29 63 32 46 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 31 64 32 45 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 32 63 25 34 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 30 60 26 39 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 32 60 25 36 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 31 62 29 40 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 32 59 22 33 / 0 0 0 0 F10 32 64 30 40 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 30 60 36 52 / 0 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...14