649 
FXUS62 KJAX 211748
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1248 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

A mix of IFR and some LIFR ceilings expected to continue through 
Saturday, though the flight category is dominantly IFR. The 
occasional LIFR chances are mainly along the coast from SGJ to 
CRG, JAX and SSI. Having said that though, there may be a period 
of improved ceilings after 09Z from JAX-SSI, but not too 
confidence in that scenario just yet. Otherwise, areas to 
widespread light rain, drizzle expected to spread northeast across
the region through tonight with vsby down to about 2SM at times, 
but mist in the 3-6SM range expected to continue at any rate. The 
rain chance should diminish after about 09Z. Northerly winds 
mainly near 8-14 kt with some more gusts of near 20-25 kt at JAX, 
SGJ, CRG, and SSI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1019 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Light rainfall and drizzle continues along and North of initial 
cold frontal passage that has drifted south to near the I-10
corridor of North FL early this morning and will remain nearly
stationary as it awaits the next wave of low pressure/energy to
push along it this afternoon, with a renewed shot of rainfall
across all of SE GA and along the I-10 corridor of NE FL with less
rainfall chances southward towards Ocala to Palm Coast. Temps will
remain steady across SE GA in the rainfall for most of the day
with just a slight bump back into the 60s south of the I-10
corridor of NE FL. Following the passage of the wave/energy along
the frontal boundary late this afternoon, the surface front will
shift southward into Central Florida with colder airmass sinking
southward across SE GA/NE FL through the night as rainfall chances
steadily decrease after midnight with scattered showers lingering
across NE FL, while only light showers linger across SE GA and now
models are only showing some light drizzle along the Altamaha
River Basin of inland Southeast GA towards morning and have kept
slight chance of Frozen Drizzle in the forecast in the 4am-9am
time frame around sunrise for Saturday morning, but chances of
actual measurable frozen precipitation still remains only in the
20-30% range at best. May need to issue a short-fuse Special 
Weather Statement (SPS) to cover this marginal situation Friday
Evening, and will hold off on any actual Winter Storm (WSW)
headlines with this package. Lows will range from the lower 30s
along the Altamaha River Basin to middle 30s for the rest of SE
GA, then upper 30s along the I-10 corridor of North FL and lower
to middle 40s for the remainder of NE FL by sunrise Saturday.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Monday]...

Precipitation will end from northwest to southeast with clouds
slowly clearing Saturday, with high pressure building from the 
west through Saturday night. The high will move east through 
Sunday, and be overhead for Monday. 

With the high to the west, light northerly flow will provide cold
advection across the region through Saturday night. Temperatures
will be well below normal on Saturday. A freeze is expected for 
Saturday night, except along the coast. Northwest flow on Sunday 
will keep temperatures below normal despite sunshine. Clear skies 
and light northwest flow will keep temperatures below normal into 
Sunday night with yet another freeze anticipated away from coast. 
A warmer day is expected for Monday, with the high right overhead,
but readings will still be below seasonal averages.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Thursday]...

The high will build toward the northeast Monday night, as an area
of low pressure moves along the central Gulf coast toward the 
region. This low will move east northeast across the area Tuesday,
bringing the chance for showers starting Monday night. Troughing 
will linger behind the low Tuesday night, leading to continued 
chances for rain. The trough will move to the east northeast 
Wednesday, as high pressure builds to the north northwest. The 
trough will build back toward the area Wednesday night into
Thursday, with a chance for rain near the NE FL coast. Near to a
little below normal temperatures are expected this period.


.MARINE...

Strong cold front will push south through the local waters today
with increasing North winds to Small Craft Advisory levels through
Saturday. Cold high pressure builds in from the Northwest on
Sunday with a slow subsiding of winds and seas through Monday. The
next low pressure system and frontal boundary will push into the
region from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Increasing north winds today will lead to Moderate
risk of rip currents at Atlantic beaches of NE FL/SE GA today,
then further increase in surf to 4-6 ft along the NE FL coast on
Saturday may lead to a potential High Risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  33  44  27  54  29 /  50  10   0   0   0 
SSI  37  44  32  55  33 /  70  20   0   0   0 
JAX  38  45  31  56  31 /  70  40   0   0   0 
SGJ  46  51  34  56  34 /  60  50  10   0   0 
GNV  41  47  31  57  29 /  60  40  10   0   0 
OCF  44  51  33  59  30 /  50  40  10   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Sunday 
     for Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL 
     out 20 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL 
     from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters 
     from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Waters 
     from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters 
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters 
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 
     NM.

&&