649 FXUS62 KJAX 211748 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1248 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Saturday] A mix of IFR and some LIFR ceilings expected to continue through Saturday, though the flight category is dominantly IFR. The occasional LIFR chances are mainly along the coast from SGJ to CRG, JAX and SSI. Having said that though, there may be a period of improved ceilings after 09Z from JAX-SSI, but not too confidence in that scenario just yet. Otherwise, areas to widespread light rain, drizzle expected to spread northeast across the region through tonight with vsby down to about 2SM at times, but mist in the 3-6SM range expected to continue at any rate. The rain chance should diminish after about 09Z. Northerly winds mainly near 8-14 kt with some more gusts of near 20-25 kt at JAX, SGJ, CRG, and SSI. && .PREV DISCUSSION [1019 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Light rainfall and drizzle continues along and North of initial cold frontal passage that has drifted south to near the I-10 corridor of North FL early this morning and will remain nearly stationary as it awaits the next wave of low pressure/energy to push along it this afternoon, with a renewed shot of rainfall across all of SE GA and along the I-10 corridor of NE FL with less rainfall chances southward towards Ocala to Palm Coast. Temps will remain steady across SE GA in the rainfall for most of the day with just a slight bump back into the 60s south of the I-10 corridor of NE FL. Following the passage of the wave/energy along the frontal boundary late this afternoon, the surface front will shift southward into Central Florida with colder airmass sinking southward across SE GA/NE FL through the night as rainfall chances steadily decrease after midnight with scattered showers lingering across NE FL, while only light showers linger across SE GA and now models are only showing some light drizzle along the Altamaha River Basin of inland Southeast GA towards morning and have kept slight chance of Frozen Drizzle in the forecast in the 4am-9am time frame around sunrise for Saturday morning, but chances of actual measurable frozen precipitation still remains only in the 20-30% range at best. May need to issue a short-fuse Special Weather Statement (SPS) to cover this marginal situation Friday Evening, and will hold off on any actual Winter Storm (WSW) headlines with this package. Lows will range from the lower 30s along the Altamaha River Basin to middle 30s for the rest of SE GA, then upper 30s along the I-10 corridor of North FL and lower to middle 40s for the remainder of NE FL by sunrise Saturday. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Monday]... Precipitation will end from northwest to southeast with clouds slowly clearing Saturday, with high pressure building from the west through Saturday night. The high will move east through Sunday, and be overhead for Monday. With the high to the west, light northerly flow will provide cold advection across the region through Saturday night. Temperatures will be well below normal on Saturday. A freeze is expected for Saturday night, except along the coast. Northwest flow on Sunday will keep temperatures below normal despite sunshine. Clear skies and light northwest flow will keep temperatures below normal into Sunday night with yet another freeze anticipated away from coast. A warmer day is expected for Monday, with the high right overhead, but readings will still be below seasonal averages. .LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Thursday]... The high will build toward the northeast Monday night, as an area of low pressure moves along the central Gulf coast toward the region. This low will move east northeast across the area Tuesday, bringing the chance for showers starting Monday night. Troughing will linger behind the low Tuesday night, leading to continued chances for rain. The trough will move to the east northeast Wednesday, as high pressure builds to the north northwest. The trough will build back toward the area Wednesday night into Thursday, with a chance for rain near the NE FL coast. Near to a little below normal temperatures are expected this period. .MARINE... Strong cold front will push south through the local waters today with increasing North winds to Small Craft Advisory levels through Saturday. Cold high pressure builds in from the Northwest on Sunday with a slow subsiding of winds and seas through Monday. The next low pressure system and frontal boundary will push into the region from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Rip Currents: Increasing north winds today will lead to Moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic beaches of NE FL/SE GA today, then further increase in surf to 4-6 ft along the NE FL coast on Saturday may lead to a potential High Risk of rip currents. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 33 44 27 54 29 / 50 10 0 0 0 SSI 37 44 32 55 33 / 70 20 0 0 0 JAX 38 45 31 56 31 / 70 40 0 0 0 SGJ 46 51 34 56 34 / 60 50 10 0 0 GNV 41 47 31 57 29 / 60 40 10 0 0 OCF 44 51 33 59 30 / 50 40 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. &&