913 
FXUS64 KTSA 131712
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1112 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1049 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

Hourly trends in good shape this morning with no changes planned
for the afternoon forecast at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

Bottom line upfront: Accumulating snow is looking more likely over
more of the region for Saturday. Potential for higher accumulations
and resulting travel impacts are greater over NW AR, especially 
in the higher terrain areas and on the ridge tops in the 
Ouachitas. Lots of uncertainties remain even a couple days out 
though, and this could adjust both the area and the snow
accumulation potential. If you are traveling on Saturday, 
continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Clouds will be on the increase Friday as a band of high level
moisture spreads north to south across the region ahead of the
weekend storm system. This will keep temps from achieving their
max potential, and thus cooler than today.

A pair of PV maxes are expected to merge into a strong mid level
closed low over the region Saturday. With the upper low center 
tracking to our west and then south, this will put our area in a 
favored zone of lift and deep layer moisture. Subtle differences 
still remain in the models even though this is a couple days out, 
possibly because one of the waves is just offshore of the West 
Coast. The 00Z EC/GEM take the system south over western OK and 
then east across north TX, while the GFS/NAM take the system down 
the I-35 corridor and then east near or just south of the Red 
River. The EC is much more aggressive with QPF over our region, 
especially in the wraparound band in the deformation zone on the 
northern side of the system compared to the GFS/NAM. While the EC 
is warmer in the low levels initially, it holds on to QPF longer 
while low levels cool sufficiently for winter precip. The column 
will cool quickly as the upper low approaches, with the low levels
the last to cool so this is a rain to snow situation. Since 
elevation typically plays a big role in these scenarios, change 
over to snow will be quicker there and thus higher accumulation 
potential. Nevertheless, if the 00Z EC is closer to correct then 
more of our area will be under the gun for impactful snow 
accumulations. There's just too much uncertainty to make that call
at this time however. The wrap-around band of snow should begin to
taper off after midnight Saturday night. Blended guidance (NBM)
PoPs were adjusted upward giving some respect to the slower EC
solution for Saturday night.

After this system exits to the east Sunday, expect a warming trend
for the first part of next week. Another strong cold front is
expected by around the middle of next week, though this fropa is
expected to be a dry one at this time.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

VFR conditions expected for all sites the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  37  58  31 /   0   0   0  50 
FSM   64  37  58  36 /   0   0   0  40 
MLC   66  37  60  31 /   0   0   0  30 
BVO   65  30  57  28 /   0   0   0  50 
FYV   62  31  55  32 /   0   0   0  60 
BYV   61  35  53  32 /   0   0   0  60 
MKO   64  36  57  31 /   0   0   0  40 
MIO   60  34  55  30 /   0   0   0  70 
F10   65  37  59  30 /   0   0   0  30 
HHW   68  38  61  35 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...18