913 FXUS64 KTSA 131712 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1112 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1049 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Hourly trends in good shape this morning with no changes planned for the afternoon forecast at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Bottom line upfront: Accumulating snow is looking more likely over more of the region for Saturday. Potential for higher accumulations and resulting travel impacts are greater over NW AR, especially in the higher terrain areas and on the ridge tops in the Ouachitas. Lots of uncertainties remain even a couple days out though, and this could adjust both the area and the snow accumulation potential. If you are traveling on Saturday, continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Clouds will be on the increase Friday as a band of high level moisture spreads north to south across the region ahead of the weekend storm system. This will keep temps from achieving their max potential, and thus cooler than today. A pair of PV maxes are expected to merge into a strong mid level closed low over the region Saturday. With the upper low center tracking to our west and then south, this will put our area in a favored zone of lift and deep layer moisture. Subtle differences still remain in the models even though this is a couple days out, possibly because one of the waves is just offshore of the West Coast. The 00Z EC/GEM take the system south over western OK and then east across north TX, while the GFS/NAM take the system down the I-35 corridor and then east near or just south of the Red River. The EC is much more aggressive with QPF over our region, especially in the wraparound band in the deformation zone on the northern side of the system compared to the GFS/NAM. While the EC is warmer in the low levels initially, it holds on to QPF longer while low levels cool sufficiently for winter precip. The column will cool quickly as the upper low approaches, with the low levels the last to cool so this is a rain to snow situation. Since elevation typically plays a big role in these scenarios, change over to snow will be quicker there and thus higher accumulation potential. Nevertheless, if the 00Z EC is closer to correct then more of our area will be under the gun for impactful snow accumulations. There's just too much uncertainty to make that call at this time however. The wrap-around band of snow should begin to taper off after midnight Saturday night. Blended guidance (NBM) PoPs were adjusted upward giving some respect to the slower EC solution for Saturday night. After this system exits to the east Sunday, expect a warming trend for the first part of next week. Another strong cold front is expected by around the middle of next week, though this fropa is expected to be a dry one at this time. Lacy && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 VFR conditions expected for all sites the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 65 37 58 31 / 0 0 0 50 FSM 64 37 58 36 / 0 0 0 40 MLC 66 37 60 31 / 0 0 0 30 BVO 65 30 57 28 / 0 0 0 50 FYV 62 31 55 32 / 0 0 0 60 BYV 61 35 53 32 / 0 0 0 60 MKO 64 36 57 31 / 0 0 0 40 MIO 60 34 55 30 / 0 0 0 70 F10 65 37 59 30 / 0 0 0 30 HHW 68 38 61 35 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...18