802 
FXUS64 KFWD 090923 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
323 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

...New Long Term... 

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1216 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022/
/Today and Monday/

Outside of low rain/isolated storm chances across extreme East
Texas, most of North and Central Texas will be mild and a bit
damp for the early morning hours today. Fog and drizzle will 
continue to plague parts of the area, with the greatest 
concentration of restricted visibilties likely north of I-20. Low
level flow will gradually veer and allow this moisture to be 
shunted eastward, resulting in improving visibilities. The mild 
conditions in place at this time will be temporary as our next 
cold front continues to knife through Oklahoma and is currently 
nearly aligned with the I-44 corridor. The front should enter into
western North Texas around 3 AM. By the 6 to 7 AM time frame I 
expect the front to be located near a Goldthwaite to D/FW to Paris
line. By 11 AM the front will likely clear areas near a Hearne to
Palestine line. Not much in the way of rain is expected with 
FROPA, but I cannot rule out a few sprinkles beneath what should 
be an overcast cloud deck.

North winds in the wake of the front will increase, with sustained
speeds approaching 20 mph. Some gusts closer to 30 to 35 mph
cannot be discounted as strong cold air advection accompanies surface
pressure rises. These winds will persist through a good portion 
of the day, as mixing of 25-30 knot momentum below the frontal 
inversion makes its way down toward the surface. High 
temperatures will likely remain in the 40s for areas near and 
northwest of an Eastland to Sherman/Denison line. Elsewhere 50s 
and 60s are forecast. If CAA is stronger and/or cloud cover is 
more widespread than expected, a few degrees may need to be shaved
off of MaxTs for today. 

For tonight into Monday morning, winds will abate (except across 
Central Texas) as high pressure builds in across southern 
Oklahoma. With an exceptionally dry airmass in place (dewpoints 
in the teens and twenties), winds falling under 5 mph and clear 
skies, optimal radiational cooling is expected, at least across 
North Texas. Overnight lows are forecast to dip down into the 
teens and twenties, with the coldest conditions likely across low-
lying and sheltered regions. Clouds may linger and winds may 
remain elevated across Central Texas and thus overnight lows are 
projected to fall into the 30s. 

Northerly winds, albeit closer to 10 to 15 mph, will persist into
Monday and this should help keep temperatures in the 50s for most
areas. Sky conditions will continue to improve and many areas will
experience mostly sunny skies.

Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night through next weekend/

The middle part of next week will be quiet with some rain chances
possible at the end of the week.

The surface high will be settled over the region Monday night, and
another night of below freezing temperatures is expected. Winds 
will be light, skies will be clear or mostly clear, and thus 
temperatures will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s. These
temperatures are not quite as cold as Monday morning is expected
to be, but still fairly chilly to start the day on Tuesday. 

The surface high will move east of the region on Tuesday, and
southerly winds will slowly return. A shortwave will move across
the region Tuesday night, but no precipitation is expected. 
Instead, we can expect increasing high clouds throughout the day 
Tuesday, with mostly cloudy coverage Tuesday night. Tuesday's 
high temperatures will be in the 50s and lower 60s, and the 
overnight lows will be warmer than the last several nights with 
values in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

As the shortwave departs the region on Wednesday, upper level 
ridging will quickly traverse the region Thursday into Friday 
ahead of another approaching shortwave. Temperatures will continue
to warm a little each day but thankfully remain below the 80 
degree mark. Some fog may be possible as the warmer air and 
moisture returns to the region, but low level wind speeds 
currently look a little too high for fog and are likely more 
indicative of overnight and morning stratus. 

Another cold front will sweep into the region during the day on 
Friday bringing cooler temperatures for the weekend. The models 
have cut back on the amount of precipitation and delayed the 
timing from previous forecasts. For this package, will retain a 
20-30 percent chance for rain Friday through Saturday morning, 
mainly across the eastern half of the region where moisture will 
be the best (ahead of the dryline and then cold front). Will leave
the mention of convective activity as showers, but thunder may 
need to be introduced. 

Breezy north winds will result in a wind chill for much of the day
on Saturday. High temperatures should reach the 50s, but it could
feel as much as 10 degrees cooler. Another freeze is likely
Saturday night.

JLDunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1216 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022/
/06 UTC TAF Cycle/

Highlights: Cigs briefly improving to VFR. MVFR cigs return post-
FROPA along with north flow.

Cigs/vsby will continue to improve through the pre-dawn hours as 
low level flow veers. At this time, VFR appears probable for at
least a handful of hours at all terminals prior to FROPA during
the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. However, if low level moisture 
remains in place, MVFR cigs may persist through a much larger 
portion of the TAF period. A cold front will slide through D10 
TAFs near sunrise Sunday and closer to mid-morning at Waco. Post 
frontal MVFR cigs should be anticipated with cloud bases initially
around FL015 and then lifting to FL025. If moisture is deeper 
behind the cold front, cigs may remain closer to FL015. North flow
is probable immediately behind FROPA and onward with sustained 
speeds near 20 knots and gusts close to 30 knots. VFR will return 
late Sunday afternoon. 

Bain

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  29  54  32  58 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Waco                56  32  55  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               55  25  52  30  57 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Denton              50  26  53  26  60 /   5   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            52  26  53  28  58 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              53  29  54  33  59 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             55  27  53  29  57 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           56  33  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              56  32  55  30  58 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       49  23  54  28  60 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$