802 FXUS64 KFWD 090923 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 323 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1216 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022/ /Today and Monday/ Outside of low rain/isolated storm chances across extreme East Texas, most of North and Central Texas will be mild and a bit damp for the early morning hours today. Fog and drizzle will continue to plague parts of the area, with the greatest concentration of restricted visibilties likely north of I-20. Low level flow will gradually veer and allow this moisture to be shunted eastward, resulting in improving visibilities. The mild conditions in place at this time will be temporary as our next cold front continues to knife through Oklahoma and is currently nearly aligned with the I-44 corridor. The front should enter into western North Texas around 3 AM. By the 6 to 7 AM time frame I expect the front to be located near a Goldthwaite to D/FW to Paris line. By 11 AM the front will likely clear areas near a Hearne to Palestine line. Not much in the way of rain is expected with FROPA, but I cannot rule out a few sprinkles beneath what should be an overcast cloud deck. North winds in the wake of the front will increase, with sustained speeds approaching 20 mph. Some gusts closer to 30 to 35 mph cannot be discounted as strong cold air advection accompanies surface pressure rises. These winds will persist through a good portion of the day, as mixing of 25-30 knot momentum below the frontal inversion makes its way down toward the surface. High temperatures will likely remain in the 40s for areas near and northwest of an Eastland to Sherman/Denison line. Elsewhere 50s and 60s are forecast. If CAA is stronger and/or cloud cover is more widespread than expected, a few degrees may need to be shaved off of MaxTs for today. For tonight into Monday morning, winds will abate (except across Central Texas) as high pressure builds in across southern Oklahoma. With an exceptionally dry airmass in place (dewpoints in the teens and twenties), winds falling under 5 mph and clear skies, optimal radiational cooling is expected, at least across North Texas. Overnight lows are forecast to dip down into the teens and twenties, with the coldest conditions likely across low- lying and sheltered regions. Clouds may linger and winds may remain elevated across Central Texas and thus overnight lows are projected to fall into the 30s. Northerly winds, albeit closer to 10 to 15 mph, will persist into Monday and this should help keep temperatures in the 50s for most areas. Sky conditions will continue to improve and many areas will experience mostly sunny skies. Bain && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday Night through next weekend/ The middle part of next week will be quiet with some rain chances possible at the end of the week. The surface high will be settled over the region Monday night, and another night of below freezing temperatures is expected. Winds will be light, skies will be clear or mostly clear, and thus temperatures will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s. These temperatures are not quite as cold as Monday morning is expected to be, but still fairly chilly to start the day on Tuesday. The surface high will move east of the region on Tuesday, and southerly winds will slowly return. A shortwave will move across the region Tuesday night, but no precipitation is expected. Instead, we can expect increasing high clouds throughout the day Tuesday, with mostly cloudy coverage Tuesday night. Tuesday's high temperatures will be in the 50s and lower 60s, and the overnight lows will be warmer than the last several nights with values in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As the shortwave departs the region on Wednesday, upper level ridging will quickly traverse the region Thursday into Friday ahead of another approaching shortwave. Temperatures will continue to warm a little each day but thankfully remain below the 80 degree mark. Some fog may be possible as the warmer air and moisture returns to the region, but low level wind speeds currently look a little too high for fog and are likely more indicative of overnight and morning stratus. Another cold front will sweep into the region during the day on Friday bringing cooler temperatures for the weekend. The models have cut back on the amount of precipitation and delayed the timing from previous forecasts. For this package, will retain a 20-30 percent chance for rain Friday through Saturday morning, mainly across the eastern half of the region where moisture will be the best (ahead of the dryline and then cold front). Will leave the mention of convective activity as showers, but thunder may need to be introduced. Breezy north winds will result in a wind chill for much of the day on Saturday. High temperatures should reach the 50s, but it could feel as much as 10 degrees cooler. Another freeze is likely Saturday night. JLDunn && .AVIATION... /Issued 1216 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022/ /06 UTC TAF Cycle/ Highlights: Cigs briefly improving to VFR. MVFR cigs return post- FROPA along with north flow. Cigs/vsby will continue to improve through the pre-dawn hours as low level flow veers. At this time, VFR appears probable for at least a handful of hours at all terminals prior to FROPA during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. However, if low level moisture remains in place, MVFR cigs may persist through a much larger portion of the TAF period. A cold front will slide through D10 TAFs near sunrise Sunday and closer to mid-morning at Waco. Post frontal MVFR cigs should be anticipated with cloud bases initially around FL015 and then lifting to FL025. If moisture is deeper behind the cold front, cigs may remain closer to FL015. North flow is probable immediately behind FROPA and onward with sustained speeds near 20 knots and gusts close to 30 knots. VFR will return late Sunday afternoon. Bain && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 52 29 54 32 58 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 56 32 55 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 55 25 52 30 57 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 50 26 53 26 60 / 5 0 0 0 0 McKinney 52 26 53 28 58 / 5 0 0 0 0 Dallas 53 29 54 33 59 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 55 27 53 29 57 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 56 33 54 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 56 32 55 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 49 23 54 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$