483 
FXUS64 KMAF 310945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

VFR expected over the next 24 hours. Increasing cloud cover in the
late morning may bring some lower CIGS to KHOB and KMAF, but
certainty remains low. Light winds will veer between W and S at
all terminals overnight, but gusty west winds will return to KCNM
and KHOB beginning around 17z. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 341 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

The forecast starts off fairly active, as persistent southwesterly 
flow aloft continues ahead of an approaching shortwave, progged to 
swing across northern Mexico and then translate east-northeastward 
across West Texas tonight. This shortwave is associated with a 
larger-scale trough currently extending from the northern Rockies 
south-southwestward across the Great Basin. Increasing ascent as 
well as increasing moisture ahead of the aforementioned shortwave 
will facilitate increasing rain chances, first expected across the 
Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Southeast New Mexico southward 
toward the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley today, with these 
precipitation chances increasing and expanding eastward this evening 
and tonight. The best chance for rain looks to be along/north of 
Highway 90, though the entire region stands a chance to see at least 
a little bit of rain over the next 24 hours. However, the subcloud 
boundary layer remains very dry, thus QPF remains on the lower side, 
generally under 0.25". While showers are primarily expected, as the 
shortwave passes over the region, there will be a window this 
afternoon into tonight when isolated thunderstorms may be possible, 
especially north of I-10. Severe weather is not expected, though any 
locations that see thunderstorms may experience increased rain rates 
and fare a bit better when it comes to overall rainfall amounts. 
Regardless, the extensive drought and the relatively low QPF 
associated with this system means that it won't be a drought buster, 
but any little bit of moisture will help. If Midland manages to 
measure prior to midnight, it will end our rainless streak at 90 
days, our third longest on record. The best chance for rain for most 
of the region will be this evening into tonight, with rain chances 
decreasing from west to east Saturday morning.

Windy conditions will also persist across the Guadalupe Mountains 
and Delaware Mountains in response to a tightening pressure gradient 
and accompanying jet at the base of the approaching trough. Winds 
look to increase rapidly late this evening across the mountains, 
thus have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning from late this 
evening through tomorrow evening. Peak gusts in excess of 85 mph 
cannot be ruled out across the Guadalupe Mountains, especially 
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, with windy conditions 
possibly extending southward toward the Davis Mountains and east 
across the adjacent plains of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. 
High Winds may also be possible across the higher terrain of the 
Davis Mountains on Saturday afternoon, though given lower confidence 
in the southward extent of the strongest winds, have foregone any 
wind headlines for that area at this time, and will defer to later 
shifts for potential inclusion in the High Wind Warning, and also 
for the final decision regarding advisory conditions that are 
expected across portions of the Southeast New Mexico and West Texas 
Plains. 

The subtle cooling trend will continue today, with high temperatures 
this afternoon expected to range from the upper 50s across portions 
of Southeast New Mexico and across the mountains to 60s and 70s 
across the plains, with 80s remaining possible through the Rio 
Grande Valley. Increased moisture and cloud cover will yield a mild 
night, with lows in the 40s for most, around 10-15 degrees above 
normal. As the aforementioned trough swings through the region 
Saturday, it will be accompanied by a Pacific front, which will 
result in cooler, but still above normal temperatures to start off 
the New Year. Highs Saturday afternoon will range from the lower to 
middle 50s north and west to 60s and lower 70s for much of the rest 
of the region. Saturday will also be the last day of above normal 
temperatures for at least a day or two, as a strong cold front takes 
aim on the region Saturday evening. Rain chances may briefly tick up 
again late Saturday afternoon into early evening along the Pacific 
front and ahead of the approaching cold front, mainly across far 
northern portions of the region, with only very light amounts 
expected. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

...Bitterly cold temperatures on the way Saturday night...

Saturday night, big changes are on the way as an Arctic cold front 
plows through the region.  Latest NAM buffer soundings peg fropa at 
KMAF at ~ 04Z, but given the strength of this feature, 'wouldn't be 
surprised to see it arrive even earlier.  NBM has a good handle on 
temperatures in the long-term, and see little reason to deviate from 
what it's proffering. 

Saturday evening, precipitation will be tapering off to the 
northeast and forecast soundings suggest a changeover from SHRA to 
SNSH 00-06Z Sunday over the NE Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling 
Plains.  However, QPF looks light, and despite the onslaught of 
colder temperatures, ground temperatures will be warm enough to melt 
anything frozen that falls.  Sunday morning will see the coldest 
temperatures this winter, from single digits northeast Lea County to 
a light freeze on the Mexico border.  Highs Sunday afternoon will 
come in well-below normal, with highs most locations in the 40s and 
50s.   

The rest of the extended looks dry as northwest flow aloft sets up 
over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Return flow resumes 
Sunday afternoon/evening, and thicknesses begin increasing to return 
highs to near-normal Monday afternoon.  Temperatures increase 
further to above-normal Tuesday, which looks to be our warmest day 
this forecast, with highs coming in around 10F above normal.  A weak 
cold front arrives Tuesday night, followed by a stronger push of CAA 
Wednesday night, taking temperatures back to near-normal Thursday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  47  60  18 /  40  50  10  10 
Carlsbad                 64  44  58  18 /  50  70  20  10 
Dryden                   77  51  75  31 /  10  30   0   0 
Fort Stockton            70  47  66  24 /  30  50   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           53  37  45  20 /  70  70  20  10 
Hobbs                    58  41  54  15 /  50  60  10  10 
Marfa                    63  35  60  17 /  50  50   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     65  46  61  20 /  50  60   0  10 
Odessa                   64  45  62  21 /  50  60   0   0 
Wink                     64  42  62  19 /  50  60   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening to 
     midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Saturday night for Guadalupe 
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Saturday 
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...84