483 FXUS64 KMAF 310945 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 345 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021 VFR expected over the next 24 hours. Increasing cloud cover in the late morning may bring some lower CIGS to KHOB and KMAF, but certainty remains low. Light winds will veer between W and S at all terminals overnight, but gusty west winds will return to KCNM and KHOB beginning around 17z. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 341 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 The forecast starts off fairly active, as persistent southwesterly flow aloft continues ahead of an approaching shortwave, progged to swing across northern Mexico and then translate east-northeastward across West Texas tonight. This shortwave is associated with a larger-scale trough currently extending from the northern Rockies south-southwestward across the Great Basin. Increasing ascent as well as increasing moisture ahead of the aforementioned shortwave will facilitate increasing rain chances, first expected across the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Southeast New Mexico southward toward the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley today, with these precipitation chances increasing and expanding eastward this evening and tonight. The best chance for rain looks to be along/north of Highway 90, though the entire region stands a chance to see at least a little bit of rain over the next 24 hours. However, the subcloud boundary layer remains very dry, thus QPF remains on the lower side, generally under 0.25". While showers are primarily expected, as the shortwave passes over the region, there will be a window this afternoon into tonight when isolated thunderstorms may be possible, especially north of I-10. Severe weather is not expected, though any locations that see thunderstorms may experience increased rain rates and fare a bit better when it comes to overall rainfall amounts. Regardless, the extensive drought and the relatively low QPF associated with this system means that it won't be a drought buster, but any little bit of moisture will help. If Midland manages to measure prior to midnight, it will end our rainless streak at 90 days, our third longest on record. The best chance for rain for most of the region will be this evening into tonight, with rain chances decreasing from west to east Saturday morning. Windy conditions will also persist across the Guadalupe Mountains and Delaware Mountains in response to a tightening pressure gradient and accompanying jet at the base of the approaching trough. Winds look to increase rapidly late this evening across the mountains, thus have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning from late this evening through tomorrow evening. Peak gusts in excess of 85 mph cannot be ruled out across the Guadalupe Mountains, especially Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, with windy conditions possibly extending southward toward the Davis Mountains and east across the adjacent plains of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. High Winds may also be possible across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains on Saturday afternoon, though given lower confidence in the southward extent of the strongest winds, have foregone any wind headlines for that area at this time, and will defer to later shifts for potential inclusion in the High Wind Warning, and also for the final decision regarding advisory conditions that are expected across portions of the Southeast New Mexico and West Texas Plains. The subtle cooling trend will continue today, with high temperatures this afternoon expected to range from the upper 50s across portions of Southeast New Mexico and across the mountains to 60s and 70s across the plains, with 80s remaining possible through the Rio Grande Valley. Increased moisture and cloud cover will yield a mild night, with lows in the 40s for most, around 10-15 degrees above normal. As the aforementioned trough swings through the region Saturday, it will be accompanied by a Pacific front, which will result in cooler, but still above normal temperatures to start off the New Year. Highs Saturday afternoon will range from the lower to middle 50s north and west to 60s and lower 70s for much of the rest of the region. Saturday will also be the last day of above normal temperatures for at least a day or two, as a strong cold front takes aim on the region Saturday evening. Rain chances may briefly tick up again late Saturday afternoon into early evening along the Pacific front and ahead of the approaching cold front, mainly across far northern portions of the region, with only very light amounts expected. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 341 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 ...Bitterly cold temperatures on the way Saturday night... Saturday night, big changes are on the way as an Arctic cold front plows through the region. Latest NAM buffer soundings peg fropa at KMAF at ~ 04Z, but given the strength of this feature, 'wouldn't be surprised to see it arrive even earlier. NBM has a good handle on temperatures in the long-term, and see little reason to deviate from what it's proffering. Saturday evening, precipitation will be tapering off to the northeast and forecast soundings suggest a changeover from SHRA to SNSH 00-06Z Sunday over the NE Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains. However, QPF looks light, and despite the onslaught of colder temperatures, ground temperatures will be warm enough to melt anything frozen that falls. Sunday morning will see the coldest temperatures this winter, from single digits northeast Lea County to a light freeze on the Mexico border. Highs Sunday afternoon will come in well-below normal, with highs most locations in the 40s and 50s. The rest of the extended looks dry as northwest flow aloft sets up over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Return flow resumes Sunday afternoon/evening, and thicknesses begin increasing to return highs to near-normal Monday afternoon. Temperatures increase further to above-normal Tuesday, which looks to be our warmest day this forecast, with highs coming in around 10F above normal. A weak cold front arrives Tuesday night, followed by a stronger push of CAA Wednesday night, taking temperatures back to near-normal Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 66 47 60 18 / 40 50 10 10 Carlsbad 64 44 58 18 / 50 70 20 10 Dryden 77 51 75 31 / 10 30 0 0 Fort Stockton 70 47 66 24 / 30 50 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 53 37 45 20 / 70 70 20 10 Hobbs 58 41 54 15 / 50 60 10 10 Marfa 63 35 60 17 / 50 50 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 65 46 61 20 / 50 60 0 10 Odessa 64 45 62 21 / 50 60 0 0 Wink 64 42 62 19 / 50 60 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning from 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening to midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Saturday night for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...84