055 
FXUS61 KRLX 111750
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1250 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers/storms are likely across the region today as a cold 
front moves through. High pressure then results in dry weather 
through midweek, along with a warming trend starting on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Saturday...

Tweaked hourly temperatures this morning as several locations
have cooled under the showers. Otherwise, front still progged 
to enter CWA shortly....expected to be in Ohio River vcnty 
around 18Z, and east of the CWA by late afternoon/early evening.
Temperatures will fall with arrival/passage of the front. Thus
far, stronger winds aloft associated with morning showers/isold
storms have not transfered to the surface. Will see an 
additional round of convective showers/isold thunderstorms later
this afternoon with the front, and mainly in the Mid Ohio 
Valley region. As with this morning, small possibility a storm
could end up on the strong side if stronger winds aloft can 
make it to the surface. 

As of 0550 AM Saturday...

Warm temperatures in the lower 70s were noted around Charleston
and Huntington early this morning with the rest of the region 
mainly in the 60s. The front that brought warmer trends pulled 
north of the area overnight, with the low center currently 
tracking across the Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms/showers 
are expected to shift east toward the mountains through the 
morning hours, with the main precipitation band remaining along 
the western areas of the state until the cold front advances 
east. Once the front picks up momentum mid morning, it will take
a fairly quick track toward the mountains. The frontal boundary
should clear the low lands late afternoon with much cooler 
temperatures settling in the wake of the low. The mountains will
likely see rain showers change over to snow as the front moves 
across this evening as H850 temperatures cool to 7 degrees below
Celsius. Gusty southerly winds today will shift out of the west
behind the front with gusts tapering off overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

Following the passage of the cold front, high pressure builds
into the region beginning on Sunday and will slowly slide to the
east throughout the beginning of the new work week. This will 
result in dry weather through Tuesday. High temperatures on 
Sunday will be seasonable, with a warming trend beginning on 
Monday. Above normal temperatures will be in place for both 
Monday and Tuesday. Sunday and Monday should feature plenty of 
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Saturday...

A high pressure system on Tuesday will provide dry weather with
unseasonably mild temperatures for this time of year. 

A warm front will then push northward through the region on
Tuesday night and Wednesday. A few showers could be associated
with the warm front. Even warmer temperatures can be expected
after the front moves through for Wednesday into Thursday. 

A cold front will then move through Thursday or Thursday night.
This will quickly be followed by a warm front on Friday,
although models vary a bit on the timing and amount of moisture
with this front. Another cold front arrives on Saturday, again with
some timing differences between the models. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

A cold front will move through the region this afternoon,
reaching the Ohio River vicinity by 19-20Z, central WV 20-22Z, 
and exiting east of the higher terrain after 22-00Z. A line of 
gusty showers is associated with this front, and expect a sharp 
wind shift to the west/northwest, with gusty winds of 40+ kts as
this line progresses through the area. In addition, brief 
MVFR/IFR conditions are associated with the line.

Otherwise, outside of the aforementioned line, strong/gusty
winds will continue though late tonight, generally until 06-09Z.
Expect sustained winds in the teens to lower 20 kts, with gusts
in the 30 kt range. Some decrease in intensity after 00Z,
particularly across the lowlands. 

In addition, areas of MVFR cigs expected behind the front, but
gradual improvement to VFR from north to south expected after
03Z. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing for wind shifts may vary. Winds may
gust higher than currently predicted especially with the front. 
Timing of improvement to VFR late tonight may vary from 
forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for WVZ028-030>032-
     039-040-519>523-525-526.
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083-084.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...07/RPY/GW
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL