055 FXUS61 KRLX 111750 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1250 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Showers/storms are likely across the region today as a cold front moves through. High pressure then results in dry weather through midweek, along with a warming trend starting on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Saturday... Tweaked hourly temperatures this morning as several locations have cooled under the showers. Otherwise, front still progged to enter CWA shortly....expected to be in Ohio River vcnty around 18Z, and east of the CWA by late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures will fall with arrival/passage of the front. Thus far, stronger winds aloft associated with morning showers/isold storms have not transfered to the surface. Will see an additional round of convective showers/isold thunderstorms later this afternoon with the front, and mainly in the Mid Ohio Valley region. As with this morning, small possibility a storm could end up on the strong side if stronger winds aloft can make it to the surface. As of 0550 AM Saturday... Warm temperatures in the lower 70s were noted around Charleston and Huntington early this morning with the rest of the region mainly in the 60s. The front that brought warmer trends pulled north of the area overnight, with the low center currently tracking across the Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms/showers are expected to shift east toward the mountains through the morning hours, with the main precipitation band remaining along the western areas of the state until the cold front advances east. Once the front picks up momentum mid morning, it will take a fairly quick track toward the mountains. The frontal boundary should clear the low lands late afternoon with much cooler temperatures settling in the wake of the low. The mountains will likely see rain showers change over to snow as the front moves across this evening as H850 temperatures cool to 7 degrees below Celsius. Gusty southerly winds today will shift out of the west behind the front with gusts tapering off overnight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Saturday... Following the passage of the cold front, high pressure builds into the region beginning on Sunday and will slowly slide to the east throughout the beginning of the new work week. This will result in dry weather through Tuesday. High temperatures on Sunday will be seasonable, with a warming trend beginning on Monday. Above normal temperatures will be in place for both Monday and Tuesday. Sunday and Monday should feature plenty of sunshine. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1240 PM Saturday... A high pressure system on Tuesday will provide dry weather with unseasonably mild temperatures for this time of year. A warm front will then push northward through the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday. A few showers could be associated with the warm front. Even warmer temperatures can be expected after the front moves through for Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will then move through Thursday or Thursday night. This will quickly be followed by a warm front on Friday, although models vary a bit on the timing and amount of moisture with this front. Another cold front arrives on Saturday, again with some timing differences between the models. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 AM Friday... A cold front will move through the region this afternoon, reaching the Ohio River vicinity by 19-20Z, central WV 20-22Z, and exiting east of the higher terrain after 22-00Z. A line of gusty showers is associated with this front, and expect a sharp wind shift to the west/northwest, with gusty winds of 40+ kts as this line progresses through the area. In addition, brief MVFR/IFR conditions are associated with the line. Otherwise, outside of the aforementioned line, strong/gusty winds will continue though late tonight, generally until 06-09Z. Expect sustained winds in the teens to lower 20 kts, with gusts in the 30 kt range. Some decrease in intensity after 00Z, particularly across the lowlands. In addition, areas of MVFR cigs expected behind the front, but gradual improvement to VFR from north to south expected after 03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing for wind shifts may vary. Winds may gust higher than currently predicted especially with the front. Timing of improvement to VFR late tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L H M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H H M H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M M H H H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L M H H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H M H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for WVZ028-030>032- 039-040-519>523-525-526. OH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083-084. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...07/RPY/GW NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...GW LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...SL