405 
FXUS62 KJAX 300856
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
356 AM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

...WIDESPREAD FROST INLAND WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EARLY 
THIS MORNING...

.NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]...

Cold dry air associated with high pressure will continue to dominate
the weather pattern today with clear skies and light winds. Early
morning widespread frost is expected to develop over inland 
southeast Georgia and extend southward into adjacent northeastern 
Florida counties and extending downward towards Alachua County. 
Freezing temperatures are expected to be in place for 2 or more 
hours over inland southeast Georgia counties, resulting in a 
freeze warning being issued for those areas until 8 AM. High 
temperatures for later today will be in the 60s with overnight low
temperatures dropping into the upper 30s and lower to mid 40s for
inland areas and in the upper 40s and lower 50s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...

Surface high pressure ridge will remain over the area Wednesday, 
dropping slightly southward, with the mean high pressure at 1026 
mb to the east-northeast of the area. This will allow for veering 
low level flow to light southerly, and warmer high temps are 
expected. The GFS and NAM do show a weak inverted trough along the
FL east central FL coast, which is expected to shift further offshore
by Wednesday night as a mid/upper level trough swings through the
area. Increased low level clouds anticipated over the southeast 
zones due to the surface trough, but any isolated shower activity
is likely to remain over the offshore waters.
 
By Thursday, as the shortwave trough moves well east of the area,
mid to upper level ridge will build over the Gulf of Mexico with 
another surface high pressure system developing over the central 
GOMEX producing west-northwest low level flow. Mostly clear skies 
expected. 

Near to above seasonal temps are expected.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday]...

The global models have come into better agreement at least for 
first part of this period. They show a shortwave ridge over the 
forecast area Friday that moves east of the area while a southern
stream shortwave trough over TX moves eastward and into our area 
by late Saturday night into Sunday. A weak cold frontal boundary 
will approach from the north on Sunday but uncertain if it will 
pass through parts of the area or stall over southeast GA. In any
case, the airmass remains dry with no precip expected for the 
weekend. In the Monday to Monday night time frame, it does look 
like a stronger cold front will move into the region from the 
northwest, overtaking a stalled frontal boundary in the area, as 
the GFS and ECMWF show similarities with the mid-upper level 
trough pattern over the eastern U.S. While a few showers are 
possible with this stronger cold front, the airmass looks rather 
dry so will keep a mention of rain out of the forecast at this 
time.

Temperatures are expected to be near or above seasonal levels on 
Friday and Saturday, and may start to trend closer to normal or 
below normal Sunday and Monday, but with some lower confidence in
the temp forecast the latter part of this period due a wider 
spread in guidance solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with clear/sunny
skies. Light and variable winds will be in place overnight with a
5-10 knot northeast to southeast onshore flow building at the 
coastal TAF sites in the afternoon and then dropping off in the 
evening.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will build directly over area waters on Tuesday and
Wednesday, resulting light winds and diminishing seas. High 
pressure will then shift southward over the Florida peninsula 
later this week, leading to light prevailing offshore winds and 
smooth conditions on the intracoastal waters. 

Rip currents: Moderate Risk for beaches through Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Near critical low RH values today but winds will be very light. 
Headline today continues to be the poor dispersion values that 
are generally about 10-15, with a few locations in the single 
digits. Continued dry on Wednesday for areas north of the FL/GA 
state line with min RH values in the upper 20s to around 30 
percent. Dispersions will be poor again over the area Wednesday, 
mainly south of U.S. Highway 84. No precip expected rest of the 
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  65  37  71  42  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SSI  65  45  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0 
JAX  66  42  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  66  47  70  50  73 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GNV  68  42  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0 
OCF  69  44  74  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for Baker-Bradford-
     Eastern Alachua-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Nassau-Northern 
     Columbia-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Union-Western Alachua-
     Western Clay-Western Duval.

GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for Appling-Atkinson-
     Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Northeastern 
     Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western 
     Charlton.

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for Echols-Inland 
     Camden-Inland Glynn.

AM...None.
&&