405 FXUS62 KJAX 300856 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 356 AM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 ...WIDESPREAD FROST INLAND WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING... .NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]... Cold dry air associated with high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern today with clear skies and light winds. Early morning widespread frost is expected to develop over inland southeast Georgia and extend southward into adjacent northeastern Florida counties and extending downward towards Alachua County. Freezing temperatures are expected to be in place for 2 or more hours over inland southeast Georgia counties, resulting in a freeze warning being issued for those areas until 8 AM. High temperatures for later today will be in the 60s with overnight low temperatures dropping into the upper 30s and lower to mid 40s for inland areas and in the upper 40s and lower 50s along the coast. .SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]... Surface high pressure ridge will remain over the area Wednesday, dropping slightly southward, with the mean high pressure at 1026 mb to the east-northeast of the area. This will allow for veering low level flow to light southerly, and warmer high temps are expected. The GFS and NAM do show a weak inverted trough along the FL east central FL coast, which is expected to shift further offshore by Wednesday night as a mid/upper level trough swings through the area. Increased low level clouds anticipated over the southeast zones due to the surface trough, but any isolated shower activity is likely to remain over the offshore waters. By Thursday, as the shortwave trough moves well east of the area, mid to upper level ridge will build over the Gulf of Mexico with another surface high pressure system developing over the central GOMEX producing west-northwest low level flow. Mostly clear skies expected. Near to above seasonal temps are expected. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday]... The global models have come into better agreement at least for first part of this period. They show a shortwave ridge over the forecast area Friday that moves east of the area while a southern stream shortwave trough over TX moves eastward and into our area by late Saturday night into Sunday. A weak cold frontal boundary will approach from the north on Sunday but uncertain if it will pass through parts of the area or stall over southeast GA. In any case, the airmass remains dry with no precip expected for the weekend. In the Monday to Monday night time frame, it does look like a stronger cold front will move into the region from the northwest, overtaking a stalled frontal boundary in the area, as the GFS and ECMWF show similarities with the mid-upper level trough pattern over the eastern U.S. While a few showers are possible with this stronger cold front, the airmass looks rather dry so will keep a mention of rain out of the forecast at this time. Temperatures are expected to be near or above seasonal levels on Friday and Saturday, and may start to trend closer to normal or below normal Sunday and Monday, but with some lower confidence in the temp forecast the latter part of this period due a wider spread in guidance solutions. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Wednesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period with clear/sunny skies. Light and variable winds will be in place overnight with a 5-10 knot northeast to southeast onshore flow building at the coastal TAF sites in the afternoon and then dropping off in the evening. && .MARINE... High pressure will build directly over area waters on Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting light winds and diminishing seas. High pressure will then shift southward over the Florida peninsula later this week, leading to light prevailing offshore winds and smooth conditions on the intracoastal waters. Rip currents: Moderate Risk for beaches through Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Near critical low RH values today but winds will be very light. Headline today continues to be the poor dispersion values that are generally about 10-15, with a few locations in the single digits. Continued dry on Wednesday for areas north of the FL/GA state line with min RH values in the upper 20s to around 30 percent. Dispersions will be poor again over the area Wednesday, mainly south of U.S. Highway 84. No precip expected rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 65 37 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 SSI 65 45 68 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 JAX 66 42 70 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 SGJ 66 47 70 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 GNV 68 42 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 OCF 69 44 74 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for Baker-Bradford- Eastern Alachua-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Nassau-Northern Columbia-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Union-Western Alachua- Western Clay-Western Duval. GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for Appling-Atkinson- Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Northeastern Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn. AM...None. &&