063 
FXUS64 KAMA 222025
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
225 PM CST Mon Nov 22 2021

.SHORT TERM...
The upper level flow will continue to be very progressive through 
Tuesday night.  An upper level ridge tonight will quickly move off 
to our east.  As the ridge moves off to our east, then it will be 
replaced by an upper level trough over the Great Basin.  This upper 
level troughing will cause the heights to fall behind the departing 
ridge which will encourage a lee-side surface trough to strengthen 
on Tuesday.  This will help to increase the southwest wind on 
Tuesday into the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts.  Winds will 
then decrease with the setting sun on Tuesday.  Highs on Tuesday are 
expected to be in the 70's, but would not be surprised to see a few 
80's mixed in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have gone ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday. 
Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph combined with relative humidity 
values between 10 and 20 percent will cause critical fire weather 
conditions across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas 
Panhandle.  In fact, we will probably see some single digit RH's in 
the western Oklahoma Panhandle.  Winds will be just a strong across 
the southern Texas Panhandle, but relative humidity values will be 
generally above 20 percent.  The watch will be in effect from noon 
until 6 pm.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
A slight chance for some precipitation as we go into Thanksgiving
morning. Otherwise, dry conditions expected through the majority 
of the Holiday and into the following weekend.

Latest 22/12Z model and numerical forecast does shows a H500
positive tilted trough moving through the Panhandles starting late
Wednesday night through Thanksgiving Day in the wake of a cold
front. Latest vertical profile analysis does show some moisture 
in the low and mid levels, but overall moisture quantity is 
limited. During the early morning hours on Thanksgiving Day, 
moisture that does transport south into the Panhandles may 
generate a few rain showers for the TX Panhandle. Could be cold 
enough for a mix of rain and snow showers for the northwestern 
Panhandles. Precipitation chances will decrease going through 
Thanksgiving Day as the main H500 strip of PVA moves ESE across 
the Panhandles with the better moisture transport vector well to 
the east across central Oklahoma and the Red River Valley of north
Texas. Overall POP for the Panhandles is only around 10-20% at 
this time. Although not very high, every slight chance, we will 
hope for the best. Temperatures behind the cold front for 
Thanksgiving Day will be below average with highs ranging from the
upper 40s to lower 50s. 

The colder temperatures wont last long. Going into Friday and
Saturday, temperatures will rise to slightly above average with
dry conditions continuing. A weak cold front for the second half
of the weekend will drop temperatures to near average.
Unfortunately, no precipitation chances throughout the majority of
the next several days.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                37  74  48  67  32 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Beaver OK                  32  76  47  64  28 /   0   0   0   5  10 
Boise City OK              31  76  42  57  23 /   0   0   5  10  20 
Borger TX                  36  78  51  68  32 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Boys Ranch TX              32  77  47  66  31 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Canyon TX                  33  74  46  67  31 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Clarendon TX               37  74  50  68  36 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Dalhart TX                 27  72  41  59  25 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Guymon OK                  31  77  45  61  26 /   0   0   0   5  10 
Hereford TX                32  74  44  67  31 /   0   0   0  10  30 
Lipscomb TX                33  74  49  67  31 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Pampa TX                   37  74  50  66  31 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Shamrock TX                35  73  48  69  34 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Wellington TX              34  74  47  71  36 /   0   0   0   5  20 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for the following zones: 
     Dallam...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson...
     Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Roberts...Sherman.

OK...Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for the following zones: 
     Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

15/29