063 FXUS64 KAMA 222025 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 225 PM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 .SHORT TERM... The upper level flow will continue to be very progressive through Tuesday night. An upper level ridge tonight will quickly move off to our east. As the ridge moves off to our east, then it will be replaced by an upper level trough over the Great Basin. This upper level troughing will cause the heights to fall behind the departing ridge which will encourage a lee-side surface trough to strengthen on Tuesday. This will help to increase the southwest wind on Tuesday into the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts. Winds will then decrease with the setting sun on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the 70's, but would not be surprised to see a few 80's mixed in. && .FIRE WEATHER... Have gone ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday. Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph combined with relative humidity values between 10 and 20 percent will cause critical fire weather conditions across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle. In fact, we will probably see some single digit RH's in the western Oklahoma Panhandle. Winds will be just a strong across the southern Texas Panhandle, but relative humidity values will be generally above 20 percent. The watch will be in effect from noon until 6 pm. && .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday... A slight chance for some precipitation as we go into Thanksgiving morning. Otherwise, dry conditions expected through the majority of the Holiday and into the following weekend. Latest 22/12Z model and numerical forecast does shows a H500 positive tilted trough moving through the Panhandles starting late Wednesday night through Thanksgiving Day in the wake of a cold front. Latest vertical profile analysis does show some moisture in the low and mid levels, but overall moisture quantity is limited. During the early morning hours on Thanksgiving Day, moisture that does transport south into the Panhandles may generate a few rain showers for the TX Panhandle. Could be cold enough for a mix of rain and snow showers for the northwestern Panhandles. Precipitation chances will decrease going through Thanksgiving Day as the main H500 strip of PVA moves ESE across the Panhandles with the better moisture transport vector well to the east across central Oklahoma and the Red River Valley of north Texas. Overall POP for the Panhandles is only around 10-20% at this time. Although not very high, every slight chance, we will hope for the best. Temperatures behind the cold front for Thanksgiving Day will be below average with highs ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. The colder temperatures wont last long. Going into Friday and Saturday, temperatures will rise to slightly above average with dry conditions continuing. A weak cold front for the second half of the weekend will drop temperatures to near average. Unfortunately, no precipitation chances throughout the majority of the next several days. Meccariello && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 37 74 48 67 32 / 0 0 0 10 20 Beaver OK 32 76 47 64 28 / 0 0 0 5 10 Boise City OK 31 76 42 57 23 / 0 0 5 10 20 Borger TX 36 78 51 68 32 / 0 0 0 10 20 Boys Ranch TX 32 77 47 66 31 / 0 0 0 10 20 Canyon TX 33 74 46 67 31 / 0 0 0 10 20 Clarendon TX 37 74 50 68 36 / 0 0 0 5 20 Dalhart TX 27 72 41 59 25 / 0 0 0 10 20 Guymon OK 31 77 45 61 26 / 0 0 0 5 10 Hereford TX 32 74 44 67 31 / 0 0 0 10 30 Lipscomb TX 33 74 49 67 31 / 0 0 0 5 20 Pampa TX 37 74 50 66 31 / 0 0 0 5 20 Shamrock TX 35 73 48 69 34 / 0 0 0 5 20 Wellington TX 34 74 47 71 36 / 0 0 0 5 20 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for the following zones: Dallam...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson... Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Roberts...Sherman. OK...Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas. && $$ 15/29