468 
FXUS65 KBOU 072221
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
321 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021

Visible satellite shows... almost no clouds across Colorado this
afternoon. Temperatures across the plains sit in the mid to upper
70s for most of the plains, and 50s to 60s are common across the
mountain parks and Foothills. While winds are relatively light
across the lower elevations, the high country has seen gusty winds
and a few areas of critical fire danger this afternoon. This will
continue through the next couple of hours before sunset. 

Tonight should be quiet as a subtle shortwave tracks to the
northwest of the forecast area. We'll see a gradual increase in
clouds overnight, but any precipitation should remain to our north
and west. Overnight lows will fall to the 20s and 30s.

A weak cold front will sink south into the plains tomorrow
morning, which will end our stretch of very warm temperatures and
start a period of cooler weather. Highs will only make it into 
the upper 50s to low 60s. Mild conditions will continue across the
high country. As our next system approaches, we'll see a 
continued increase in cloud cover with a few isolated snow showers
for the mountains. Otherwise we'll remain dry across the plains 
through Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021

Short wave ridging should keep the area dry Monday night through 
Tuesday, and with highs warming a few degrees to the upper 50s to
mid 60s across the plains. 

Not much has changed in the forecast for Tuesday night through 
Wednesday. Models are still showing around 3 g/kg of low to mid 
level moisture with the passing wave, enhanced ascent under the 
left exit region of a greater than 100 kt jet behind it, and
around 30 knots of westerly to northwesterly orographic ascent 
into the mountains. Continue to expect scattered to widespread
stratiform precipitation bringing several inches of snowfall in 
the northern Colorado mountains, with blowing snow and possibly 
Winter Weather Advisories. There will be a chance of much lighter 
showers for the urban corridor through Wednesday morning, mostly 
rain, and a slight chance of showers out further east.

Wednesday will be cooler, especially in the high country due to 
cold advection and precipitation. The lower elevations should 
still be just slightly warmer than normal. Expect highs in the 30s
to low 40s in the high country and mid to upper 50s across the 
plains. Breezy conditions should start to set in by Wednesday 
afternoon in response to a strong pressure gradient across the 
High Plains, which may persist through Thursday. Wednesday night, 
precipitation should decrease in coverage and intensity due to 
subsidence behind the shortwave. Light stratiform precipitation 
may persist in the high country, while downslope flow will 
eliminate it for the lower elevations.

Light snow showers may linger in the high country Thursday and 
early Friday, supported by northwesterly to northerly jet winds 
over the mountains. Showers should end by Friday afternoon or 
evening as the upper trough moves east and ridging builds again 
over the central Rockies. There is pretty decent model agreement 
on the return of gradual ridging and warm, dry conditions again 
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 218 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Weak winds
this afternoon will transition to drainage flow tonight. A cold
front should shift winds to the north and northeast tomorrow
morning, with northeast winds continuing through the day. No
ceiling or visibility impacts are anticipated.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ214.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...EJD
AVIATION...Hiris