468 FXUS65 KBOU 072221 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 321 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 218 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 Visible satellite shows... almost no clouds across Colorado this afternoon. Temperatures across the plains sit in the mid to upper 70s for most of the plains, and 50s to 60s are common across the mountain parks and Foothills. While winds are relatively light across the lower elevations, the high country has seen gusty winds and a few areas of critical fire danger this afternoon. This will continue through the next couple of hours before sunset. Tonight should be quiet as a subtle shortwave tracks to the northwest of the forecast area. We'll see a gradual increase in clouds overnight, but any precipitation should remain to our north and west. Overnight lows will fall to the 20s and 30s. A weak cold front will sink south into the plains tomorrow morning, which will end our stretch of very warm temperatures and start a period of cooler weather. Highs will only make it into the upper 50s to low 60s. Mild conditions will continue across the high country. As our next system approaches, we'll see a continued increase in cloud cover with a few isolated snow showers for the mountains. Otherwise we'll remain dry across the plains through Monday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 218 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 Short wave ridging should keep the area dry Monday night through Tuesday, and with highs warming a few degrees to the upper 50s to mid 60s across the plains. Not much has changed in the forecast for Tuesday night through Wednesday. Models are still showing around 3 g/kg of low to mid level moisture with the passing wave, enhanced ascent under the left exit region of a greater than 100 kt jet behind it, and around 30 knots of westerly to northwesterly orographic ascent into the mountains. Continue to expect scattered to widespread stratiform precipitation bringing several inches of snowfall in the northern Colorado mountains, with blowing snow and possibly Winter Weather Advisories. There will be a chance of much lighter showers for the urban corridor through Wednesday morning, mostly rain, and a slight chance of showers out further east. Wednesday will be cooler, especially in the high country due to cold advection and precipitation. The lower elevations should still be just slightly warmer than normal. Expect highs in the 30s to low 40s in the high country and mid to upper 50s across the plains. Breezy conditions should start to set in by Wednesday afternoon in response to a strong pressure gradient across the High Plains, which may persist through Thursday. Wednesday night, precipitation should decrease in coverage and intensity due to subsidence behind the shortwave. Light stratiform precipitation may persist in the high country, while downslope flow will eliminate it for the lower elevations. Light snow showers may linger in the high country Thursday and early Friday, supported by northwesterly to northerly jet winds over the mountains. Showers should end by Friday afternoon or evening as the upper trough moves east and ridging builds again over the central Rockies. There is pretty decent model agreement on the return of gradual ridging and warm, dry conditions again for next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 218 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Weak winds this afternoon will transition to drainage flow tonight. A cold front should shift winds to the north and northeast tomorrow morning, with northeast winds continuing through the day. No ceiling or visibility impacts are anticipated. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ214. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hiris LONG TERM...EJD AVIATION...Hiris