986 
FXUS63 KGLD 070903
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
203 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021

Overview: A broad upper level ridge, presently situated over the 
central CONUS, will amplify and shift east of the MS River Valley 
on Sunday.. as a large, complex upper level trough.. presently 
moving ashore the Pacific North American coast.. progresses into 
the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.

Through Tonight: Expect mostly clear skies (aside from occasional
cirrus in westerly flow aloft) and light southerly winds.. on the
eastern periphery of a lee trough in eastern CO. Expect lows 
similar to (albeit slightly warmer than) this morning.. ranging 
from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Sun-Sun Night: A weak lee cyclone is progged to develop invof the
KS/CO border on Sunday.. as flow aloft backs to the SW in advance
of the approaching upper trough. With the lee cyclone centered
more-or-less directly over the Tri-State area, winds should
largely remain light and variable.. though sporadic WSW gusts to
15-20 mph cannot be ruled out around peak heating.. if vertical
mixing is sufficient. Expect highs similar to or slightly warmer
than today.. in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few locations could
approach record highs in the mid 80s.. perhaps depending on
whether or not (and to what extent) orographic cirrus develops in
southern CO and northern NM. A colder airmass will advect into the
region from the N early Monday morning.. as the lee cyclone
progresses slowly southeast toward the KS/OK border and winds
shift to the NNE-NE. Expect overnight lows ranging from the lower
30s to lower 40s, coldest in north/northwest portions of the
area.. where the cold frontal passage will occur prior to sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 140 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021

A couple of short wave troughs move across the central High 
Plains region as they circulate through the upper trough moving 
east of the Rockies and across the High Plains between Wednesday 
and Wednesday night. The upper trough consolidates into a closed 
low over the northern Plains on Thursday with the amplifying 
pattern progressing more slowly as the flow becomes more
northerly over the forecast area. This northerly flow will bring 
another surge of cooler air into the central High Plains and
Plains regions in the wake of the exiting low on Thursday and 
Friday as another couple of short wave troughs across the forecast
area in the upper flow. By Friday night and Saturday, the upper 
trough shifts further east over the eastern U.S. and the upper 
ridge over the western U.S. expands across the Rockies and western
Plains.

Individual and blended model solutions have continued to highlight
the Wednesday into Wednesday evening time period as the favored
period of possible precipitation across the forecast area while
diminishing the possibility of precipitation after midnight
Wednesday night into Thursday morning due to the slightly more
progressive pattern evolution. Areas mainly north of I-70 also
continued to be favored as light rain begins to mix and change
over to light snow Wednesday evening before the front and surface
trough move east of the area. Precipitation will be minimal with
little to no accumulations with dry conditions to follow from
Thursday through Saturday as the upper ridge expands over the
area.

High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected on 
Wednesday with lows in the middle 20s to middle 30s. Highs cool 
into the upper 40s and lower 50s Thursday and Friday with lows 
remaining in the 20s. Temperatures will begin a gradual rise
Saturday and into the remainder of the weekend with highs climbing
back into the lower 60s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1110 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021

The 06Z TAF looks to have VFR conditions for each terminal 
throughout the period. Winds look to remain below 10 knots for 
each site throughout the period. Winds are from the SSE currently 
are expected to slowly turn westerly by mid morning and then 
become variable throughout the afternoon before turning coming 
back around to the SSE by the end of the period. Satellite shows 
high clouds moving east off of the Rockies, these clouds are not 
expected to cause any ceiling issues. Latest guidance has been 
showing a weak signal of perhaps some patchy fog developing over 
the eastern portion of the CWA, confidence is very low at this 
time if the fog will even occur or impact KMCK; will continue to 
monitor this potential throughout the night.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...TT