986 FXUS63 KGLD 070903 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 203 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Overview: A broad upper level ridge, presently situated over the central CONUS, will amplify and shift east of the MS River Valley on Sunday.. as a large, complex upper level trough.. presently moving ashore the Pacific North American coast.. progresses into the Intermountain West and northern Rockies. Through Tonight: Expect mostly clear skies (aside from occasional cirrus in westerly flow aloft) and light southerly winds.. on the eastern periphery of a lee trough in eastern CO. Expect lows similar to (albeit slightly warmer than) this morning.. ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Sun-Sun Night: A weak lee cyclone is progged to develop invof the KS/CO border on Sunday.. as flow aloft backs to the SW in advance of the approaching upper trough. With the lee cyclone centered more-or-less directly over the Tri-State area, winds should largely remain light and variable.. though sporadic WSW gusts to 15-20 mph cannot be ruled out around peak heating.. if vertical mixing is sufficient. Expect highs similar to or slightly warmer than today.. in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few locations could approach record highs in the mid 80s.. perhaps depending on whether or not (and to what extent) orographic cirrus develops in southern CO and northern NM. A colder airmass will advect into the region from the N early Monday morning.. as the lee cyclone progresses slowly southeast toward the KS/OK border and winds shift to the NNE-NE. Expect overnight lows ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s, coldest in north/northwest portions of the area.. where the cold frontal passage will occur prior to sunrise. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 140 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 A couple of short wave troughs move across the central High Plains region as they circulate through the upper trough moving east of the Rockies and across the High Plains between Wednesday and Wednesday night. The upper trough consolidates into a closed low over the northern Plains on Thursday with the amplifying pattern progressing more slowly as the flow becomes more northerly over the forecast area. This northerly flow will bring another surge of cooler air into the central High Plains and Plains regions in the wake of the exiting low on Thursday and Friday as another couple of short wave troughs across the forecast area in the upper flow. By Friday night and Saturday, the upper trough shifts further east over the eastern U.S. and the upper ridge over the western U.S. expands across the Rockies and western Plains. Individual and blended model solutions have continued to highlight the Wednesday into Wednesday evening time period as the favored period of possible precipitation across the forecast area while diminishing the possibility of precipitation after midnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning due to the slightly more progressive pattern evolution. Areas mainly north of I-70 also continued to be favored as light rain begins to mix and change over to light snow Wednesday evening before the front and surface trough move east of the area. Precipitation will be minimal with little to no accumulations with dry conditions to follow from Thursday through Saturday as the upper ridge expands over the area. High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected on Wednesday with lows in the middle 20s to middle 30s. Highs cool into the upper 40s and lower 50s Thursday and Friday with lows remaining in the 20s. Temperatures will begin a gradual rise Saturday and into the remainder of the weekend with highs climbing back into the lower 60s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1110 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 The 06Z TAF looks to have VFR conditions for each terminal throughout the period. Winds look to remain below 10 knots for each site throughout the period. Winds are from the SSE currently are expected to slowly turn westerly by mid morning and then become variable throughout the afternoon before turning coming back around to the SSE by the end of the period. Satellite shows high clouds moving east off of the Rockies, these clouds are not expected to cause any ceiling issues. Latest guidance has been showing a weak signal of perhaps some patchy fog developing over the eastern portion of the CWA, confidence is very low at this time if the fog will even occur or impact KMCK; will continue to monitor this potential throughout the night. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...LOCKHART AVIATION...TT