384 
FXUS65 KBOU 070139
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
739 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021

IR satellite imagery showing a far amount of high clouds off to 
the west. These clouds will progress eastward over Colorado 
tonight. This combined with the warm airmass will result in mild 
overnight lows. The high clouds decrease Sunday leading to 
possible record warmth again Sunday. Going forecast is in good 
shape with no changes expected. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021

Our weekend is off to a record-setting start. With a high of 80F
this afternoon we've officially recorded the second warmest
November day in Denver's history (only 81F on 11/27/2017 was
warmer), and there's a good possibility tomorrow ends up in a
similar spot. RAP Mesoanalysis this afternoon shows much of
Colorado under 30-45kt of 500mb flow, with very dry conditions
through much of the atmosphere. Not much is expected to change
tonight, though we could see brief mountain wave cloud development
overnight tonight with a pocket of slightly improved moisture.

Tomorrow should be another near-record setting day (78F in 1999)
in the Denver metro area with broad southwesterly flow and very
dry conditions. This will also lead to another day of near-
critical to critical fire danger across our forecast area. Gusty
winds will be likely across the higher terrain, with quiet weather
otherwise.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021

After a weekend of balmy temperatures, a cool down is expected for
the work week. A weak upper level disturbance moves through the
southwest flow aloft late Sunday night/early Monday morning with a
cold front expected to move through the eastern plains. Moisture
increases slightly across the area, but low precipitation chances
look like they are confined to the north central mountains with
rain or snow showers possible Monday afternoon and evening. Still
looks pretty dry across the plains, so I have left precipitation
chances out. High temperatures will top out in the mid to upper
50s for the plains Monday. The disturbance moves out of the area
Monday night, leaving the CWA under a weak, transient ridge for 
about 24 hours. 

Another stronger trof is forecast to move across the northern 
Rockies late Tuesday into Wednesday and brings a better chance of
precipitation, especially in the mountains. Could even see some
rain or snow showers farther east across the plains.

By the end of the week, northwest flow aloft dominates the pattern
across the CWA. Some differences crop up in the extended models
with the progression of the upper low over the Great Lakes. Could
see lingering showers across the mountains Thursday, but it will 
remain dry on the eastern plains. Expect temperatures to warm 
back into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the lower elevations 
Friday and Saturday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 739 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021

VFR conditions to persist through Sunday with high clouds at 
times. Light and variable winds at KDEN and KAPA will turn south- 
southwesterly around 03Z. Speeds will be under 15 knots. Winds 
late Sunday morning and afternoon should be light and variable. A 
weak low moves over eastern Colorado and could bring a wind shift 
to the north around 00Z Monday. Wind speeds are expected to stay 
rather light. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021

Critical fire danger will continue across the warned areas this
evening before winds decrease and humidity increases. Overnight
humidity recovery is expected to be fairly poor, with maximum
humidities between 30-40% overnight. Tomorrow will see another day
of near-record warmth and very dry conditions. Nearly all of our
forecast area will see humidity values below 15% tomorrow
afternoon, except for areas above 9000 feet. Elevated fire danger
will be a common theme across the entire forecast area.

The only question remaining is if winds will be strong enough to
warrant another Red Flag Warning. For now we'll hold off, but
confidence is increasing that winds will meet criteria across much
of Park County. HREF probabilities of >20kt surface wind peaks at
about 80% tomorrow afternoon across South Park, with the potential
for a few gusts up to 30kt. Elsewhere, winds look light enough to
avoid Red Flag criteria. We'll hold off on any products this 
forecast cycle, but will likely need some sort of highlights by
tomorrow morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...Stark
AVIATION...Meier
FIRE WEATHER...Hiris