384 FXUS65 KBOU 070139 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 739 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 739 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 IR satellite imagery showing a far amount of high clouds off to the west. These clouds will progress eastward over Colorado tonight. This combined with the warm airmass will result in mild overnight lows. The high clouds decrease Sunday leading to possible record warmth again Sunday. Going forecast is in good shape with no changes expected. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Our weekend is off to a record-setting start. With a high of 80F this afternoon we've officially recorded the second warmest November day in Denver's history (only 81F on 11/27/2017 was warmer), and there's a good possibility tomorrow ends up in a similar spot. RAP Mesoanalysis this afternoon shows much of Colorado under 30-45kt of 500mb flow, with very dry conditions through much of the atmosphere. Not much is expected to change tonight, though we could see brief mountain wave cloud development overnight tonight with a pocket of slightly improved moisture. Tomorrow should be another near-record setting day (78F in 1999) in the Denver metro area with broad southwesterly flow and very dry conditions. This will also lead to another day of near- critical to critical fire danger across our forecast area. Gusty winds will be likely across the higher terrain, with quiet weather otherwise. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 After a weekend of balmy temperatures, a cool down is expected for the work week. A weak upper level disturbance moves through the southwest flow aloft late Sunday night/early Monday morning with a cold front expected to move through the eastern plains. Moisture increases slightly across the area, but low precipitation chances look like they are confined to the north central mountains with rain or snow showers possible Monday afternoon and evening. Still looks pretty dry across the plains, so I have left precipitation chances out. High temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 50s for the plains Monday. The disturbance moves out of the area Monday night, leaving the CWA under a weak, transient ridge for about 24 hours. Another stronger trof is forecast to move across the northern Rockies late Tuesday into Wednesday and brings a better chance of precipitation, especially in the mountains. Could even see some rain or snow showers farther east across the plains. By the end of the week, northwest flow aloft dominates the pattern across the CWA. Some differences crop up in the extended models with the progression of the upper low over the Great Lakes. Could see lingering showers across the mountains Thursday, but it will remain dry on the eastern plains. Expect temperatures to warm back into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the lower elevations Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 739 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 VFR conditions to persist through Sunday with high clouds at times. Light and variable winds at KDEN and KAPA will turn south- southwesterly around 03Z. Speeds will be under 15 knots. Winds late Sunday morning and afternoon should be light and variable. A weak low moves over eastern Colorado and could bring a wind shift to the north around 00Z Monday. Wind speeds are expected to stay rather light. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sat Nov 6 2021 Critical fire danger will continue across the warned areas this evening before winds decrease and humidity increases. Overnight humidity recovery is expected to be fairly poor, with maximum humidities between 30-40% overnight. Tomorrow will see another day of near-record warmth and very dry conditions. Nearly all of our forecast area will see humidity values below 15% tomorrow afternoon, except for areas above 9000 feet. Elevated fire danger will be a common theme across the entire forecast area. The only question remaining is if winds will be strong enough to warrant another Red Flag Warning. For now we'll hold off, but confidence is increasing that winds will meet criteria across much of Park County. HREF probabilities of >20kt surface wind peaks at about 80% tomorrow afternoon across South Park, with the potential for a few gusts up to 30kt. Elsewhere, winds look light enough to avoid Red Flag criteria. We'll hold off on any products this forecast cycle, but will likely need some sort of highlights by tomorrow morning. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Meier SHORT TERM...Hiris LONG TERM...Stark AVIATION...Meier FIRE WEATHER...Hiris