354 
FXUS64 KAMA 051726 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1226 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021

.AVIATION...18z TAFs...

VFR conditions are expected with this TAF issuance at all
terminals. Winds will generally be 10-15 kts this afternoon before
dropping below 10 kts around 22-00z. There is a potential for fog
tonight and it could come as far west as KAMA. Confidence is not
high enough to include in the TAF at this time, but may be needed
in future issuances.

Muscha/Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 618 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021/ 

AVIATION...
12Z Issuance...Sites are generally VFR. There are some low clouds
and fog issues in the eastern Panhandles that should erode away
around mid-morning. Winds will be southwesterly and AOB 15kts for
most of the day. There will be a wind shift to southeasterly in
the late afternoon through early evening, before winds come back
to southwesterly for the night.

Beat

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 159 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021/ 

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

Low clouds and fog over the eastern Panhandles are expected to 
dissipate by late this morning.  Mostly sunny skies are expected to 
prevail across the Panhandles both today and Saturday outside of the 
possibility of a short bout with low clouds and fog again across the 
southeast Texas Panhandle.  Highs today are expected to be in the 
60's and 70's with readings getting close to 80 degrees on 
Saturday in some spots.

Southwest winds should pick up on Saturday into the 15 to 25 mph 
range across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas 
Panhandle.  Some elevated fire weather conditions will be possible 
in the western Oklahoma Panhandle where the strongest winds line up 
with the driest grasses and lowest relative humidity.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

Sunday will see southwest flow aloft with ridging in the east and
slight troughing just off the west coast. A lee side low brings 
warming along with southwesterly surface winds to bring temps 
Sunday into the 80s. This will be near or at record temps for some
locations. The pressure gradient also looks to tighten up which
will bring breezy winds. The western OK Panhandle may see some
elevated fire weather due to the breezy winds, warm temps, and dry
grasses.

The surface low dances around the southern plains a bit Monday 
but doesn't move much. Meanwhile in the upper levels, the trough
in the west shifts eastward, but with much disagreement in models
for the speed of the wave. The deterministic GFS is the fastest
with the wave in the four corners region Monday. The ECMWF is the
slowest with the wave back in the Great Basin region. The Canadian
is closer to the GFS, but is a bit stronger with the wave. This
all leads to the surface low and cold front finally moving
through the Panhandles somewhere between Monday night to Tuesday
morning depending on the speed of the trough. 

The pattern of seeing fronts looks to continue as a series of
fronts start to come through with the second one being sometime
Wednesday. Timing again will all be dependent on which model is
verifying better as the GFS continues to be the faster model for
each wave and the EC as the slower model. With the mid-week front,
there is also the possibility of precip. The deterministic GFS and
several more members have gone dry with this run. There are still
a few GEFS members, EC members, and the deterministic EC that put
some precip chances in the area. For now have maintained the NBM
that keeps most moisture just on the other side of the OK border.
Soundings still indicate that any precip with this system would
still remain as all liquid. 

The end of the week looks to see another frontal passage, and
again likely a dry one at that. The consistent hits of the fronts
will lead to continued decreasing trend in temps through the week.
The warmth of the 80s on Sunday will drop to the 50s for highs on
Friday. 

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

5/24