354 FXUS64 KAMA 051726 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1226 PM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021 .AVIATION...18z TAFs... VFR conditions are expected with this TAF issuance at all terminals. Winds will generally be 10-15 kts this afternoon before dropping below 10 kts around 22-00z. There is a potential for fog tonight and it could come as far west as KAMA. Confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time, but may be needed in future issuances. Muscha/Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 618 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021/ AVIATION... 12Z Issuance...Sites are generally VFR. There are some low clouds and fog issues in the eastern Panhandles that should erode away around mid-morning. Winds will be southwesterly and AOB 15kts for most of the day. There will be a wind shift to southeasterly in the late afternoon through early evening, before winds come back to southwesterly for the night. Beat PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 159 AM CDT Fri Nov 5 2021/ SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday... Low clouds and fog over the eastern Panhandles are expected to dissipate by late this morning. Mostly sunny skies are expected to prevail across the Panhandles both today and Saturday outside of the possibility of a short bout with low clouds and fog again across the southeast Texas Panhandle. Highs today are expected to be in the 60's and 70's with readings getting close to 80 degrees on Saturday in some spots. Southwest winds should pick up on Saturday into the 15 to 25 mph range across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle. Some elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in the western Oklahoma Panhandle where the strongest winds line up with the driest grasses and lowest relative humidity. LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday... Sunday will see southwest flow aloft with ridging in the east and slight troughing just off the west coast. A lee side low brings warming along with southwesterly surface winds to bring temps Sunday into the 80s. This will be near or at record temps for some locations. The pressure gradient also looks to tighten up which will bring breezy winds. The western OK Panhandle may see some elevated fire weather due to the breezy winds, warm temps, and dry grasses. The surface low dances around the southern plains a bit Monday but doesn't move much. Meanwhile in the upper levels, the trough in the west shifts eastward, but with much disagreement in models for the speed of the wave. The deterministic GFS is the fastest with the wave in the four corners region Monday. The ECMWF is the slowest with the wave back in the Great Basin region. The Canadian is closer to the GFS, but is a bit stronger with the wave. This all leads to the surface low and cold front finally moving through the Panhandles somewhere between Monday night to Tuesday morning depending on the speed of the trough. The pattern of seeing fronts looks to continue as a series of fronts start to come through with the second one being sometime Wednesday. Timing again will all be dependent on which model is verifying better as the GFS continues to be the faster model for each wave and the EC as the slower model. With the mid-week front, there is also the possibility of precip. The deterministic GFS and several more members have gone dry with this run. There are still a few GEFS members, EC members, and the deterministic EC that put some precip chances in the area. For now have maintained the NBM that keeps most moisture just on the other side of the OK border. Soundings still indicate that any precip with this system would still remain as all liquid. The end of the week looks to see another frontal passage, and again likely a dry one at that. The consistent hits of the fronts will lead to continued decreasing trend in temps through the week. The warmth of the 80s on Sunday will drop to the 50s for highs on Friday. Beat && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 5/24