871 
FXUS63 KGLD 192005
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
205 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Have updated the forecast this afternoon to include a mention of
blowing dust west of a line from Benkelman to Colby. Latest 12z
guidance from the GFS and NAM show parameters are favorable for
blowing dust from ongoing local research. Surface wind speeds may
be a bit less than ideal but with 3 hour pressure rises
approaching 10mb coming into the area from the northwest late this
afternoon the wind speeds may be closer to ideal. Either way, have
added blowing dust to the forecast and adjusted other parameters
based on latest guidance. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021

At the beginning of the short term period, current RAP analysis 
shows an upper air low pressure system over central UT with the 
CWA having a southwesterly flow aloft as it is between this low 
and an eastern ridge. Model guidance depicts that the low will 
move to the east-northeast along the CO/WY and make it to the 
CO/NE/WY border by Tuesday evening. At the surface, a drier air 
mass looks to move over the CWA early on Tuesday ahead of an 
approaching cold front associated with a surface low in the 
vicinity of the CO/NE border. With this setup, the CWA may see 
some wind gusts ranging up to 35 mph and possibly exceeding that 
in some areas during the day. With these winds and the drier air 
mass bringing RH values below 20 percent, near critical to 
critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon 
south of a line from Joes, Colorado to McCook, Nebraska. A Red 
Flag Warning has been issued for Cheyenne County Colorado and 
Greeley County Kansas for Tuesday afternoon. These two counties 
look to have the potential to meet the criteria of a few hours of 
relative humidity values at 15 percent or just below. There is 
some uncertainty if they will meet the criteria with the 
approaching cold front though latest model runs show the higher 
dew point temperatures associated with the front do not reach 
northern Cheyenne County border until 00Z Weds. Daytime highs on 
Tuesday in the CWA look to range from the middle 60s in the far 
northwestern portion to the lower 80s in the eastern portions. 

On Tuesday night, models show the upper air low progressing 
northeast to the central NE/SD border and staying north of the 
CWA. Behind the low, a weak ridge starts to develop over the 
Rockies. At the surface, low chances for precipitation and breezy 
conditions look to continue with northwesterly winds around 15 mph
expected. These winds will help keep frost at bay overnight as 
cooler temperatures return. Overnight lows on Tuesday night expect
to be in the lower 30s to lower 40s range. 

On Wednesday, model guidance depicts the low moving east towards the 
Great Lakes region with the front part of the ridge moving over the 
CWA by the evening hours. Far off to the west, models show an upper 
air low spinning off the Pacific Northwest Coast behind the ridge.
At the surface, dry conditions are expected to continue going 
through the day for the CWA. Winds look to stay northwesterly 
around 10 to 15 mph with some possible gusts up to around 25 to 30
mph during the afternoon. By Wednesday night, a surface high 
looks to set up south of the CWA and help slow down the winds 
quite a bit. With colder temperatures near or below freezing, the 
CWA sees a good chance for frost to develop overnight. Daytime 
highs on Wednesday look to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with 
overnight lows in the lower to middle 30s. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) 
Issued at 204 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021

The main concern for the extended forecast is dry conditions and the 
possibility of near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. 

The forecast begins Friday night with northwest flow aloft over the 
Central High Plains as a ridge treks eastward into the Dakotas and 
Nebraska.  Temperatures are expected to remain in the 40s for areas 
in Kansas mainly along and south of Interstate 70.  A bit of patchy 
frost may be possible in eastern Colorado where temperatures dip 
into the mid-30s.  

Saturday, the ridge pushes east and a trough moves in resulting in 
southwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area.  The best chance for 
any precipitation continues to be to the north and east of the area, 
so have maintained dry conditions through Saturday and Sunday.  

Dry conditions persist into the start of next week with temperatures 
returning to the 70s for highs on Monday and Tuesday.  Lows are also 
looking slightly warmer, in the 40s and 50s on Tuesday morning. 
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible 
in eastern Colorado on Monday and Tuesday as our next system 
advances.  Minimum relative humidity values will be in the upper 
teens to low 20s with wind gusts of 25+ mph possible for a few hours 
in the afternoon.  Tuesday night, a cold front is expected to move 
into the region which will bring another round of cool temperatures 
to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021

KGLD...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period.
Southwest winds gusting to 30kts at taf issuance will veer to the
west at similar speeds around 21z then northwest at similar
speeds, maybe higher around 00z. There is a small chance for
blowing dust and sub VFR conditions around the 00z timeframe. For
the remainder of the period northwest winds gusting to 30kts or so
are expected. Stratus and sub VFR cigs are possible in the 08z-12z
timeframe. 

KMCK...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period. A
south wind around 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the southwest
and gust up to 25kts around 21z then shift to the northwest and
gust up to 30kts by 00z. For tonight through Wednesday morning
northwest winds gusting up to 30kts will continue. Stratus and sub
VFR cigs are possible in the 08z-12z timeframe. 


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for KSZ041.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...99