871 FXUS63 KGLD 192005 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 205 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Have updated the forecast this afternoon to include a mention of blowing dust west of a line from Benkelman to Colby. Latest 12z guidance from the GFS and NAM show parameters are favorable for blowing dust from ongoing local research. Surface wind speeds may be a bit less than ideal but with 3 hour pressure rises approaching 10mb coming into the area from the northwest late this afternoon the wind speeds may be closer to ideal. Either way, have added blowing dust to the forecast and adjusted other parameters based on latest guidance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 At the beginning of the short term period, current RAP analysis shows an upper air low pressure system over central UT with the CWA having a southwesterly flow aloft as it is between this low and an eastern ridge. Model guidance depicts that the low will move to the east-northeast along the CO/WY and make it to the CO/NE/WY border by Tuesday evening. At the surface, a drier air mass looks to move over the CWA early on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front associated with a surface low in the vicinity of the CO/NE border. With this setup, the CWA may see some wind gusts ranging up to 35 mph and possibly exceeding that in some areas during the day. With these winds and the drier air mass bringing RH values below 20 percent, near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon south of a line from Joes, Colorado to McCook, Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Cheyenne County Colorado and Greeley County Kansas for Tuesday afternoon. These two counties look to have the potential to meet the criteria of a few hours of relative humidity values at 15 percent or just below. There is some uncertainty if they will meet the criteria with the approaching cold front though latest model runs show the higher dew point temperatures associated with the front do not reach northern Cheyenne County border until 00Z Weds. Daytime highs on Tuesday in the CWA look to range from the middle 60s in the far northwestern portion to the lower 80s in the eastern portions. On Tuesday night, models show the upper air low progressing northeast to the central NE/SD border and staying north of the CWA. Behind the low, a weak ridge starts to develop over the Rockies. At the surface, low chances for precipitation and breezy conditions look to continue with northwesterly winds around 15 mph expected. These winds will help keep frost at bay overnight as cooler temperatures return. Overnight lows on Tuesday night expect to be in the lower 30s to lower 40s range. On Wednesday, model guidance depicts the low moving east towards the Great Lakes region with the front part of the ridge moving over the CWA by the evening hours. Far off to the west, models show an upper air low spinning off the Pacific Northwest Coast behind the ridge. At the surface, dry conditions are expected to continue going through the day for the CWA. Winds look to stay northwesterly around 10 to 15 mph with some possible gusts up to around 25 to 30 mph during the afternoon. By Wednesday night, a surface high looks to set up south of the CWA and help slow down the winds quite a bit. With colder temperatures near or below freezing, the CWA sees a good chance for frost to develop overnight. Daytime highs on Wednesday look to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 30s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 204 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 The main concern for the extended forecast is dry conditions and the possibility of near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. The forecast begins Friday night with northwest flow aloft over the Central High Plains as a ridge treks eastward into the Dakotas and Nebraska. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 40s for areas in Kansas mainly along and south of Interstate 70. A bit of patchy frost may be possible in eastern Colorado where temperatures dip into the mid-30s. Saturday, the ridge pushes east and a trough moves in resulting in southwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. The best chance for any precipitation continues to be to the north and east of the area, so have maintained dry conditions through Saturday and Sunday. Dry conditions persist into the start of next week with temperatures returning to the 70s for highs on Monday and Tuesday. Lows are also looking slightly warmer, in the 40s and 50s on Tuesday morning. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible in eastern Colorado on Monday and Tuesday as our next system advances. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the upper teens to low 20s with wind gusts of 25+ mph possible for a few hours in the afternoon. Tuesday night, a cold front is expected to move into the region which will bring another round of cool temperatures to the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 KGLD...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period. Southwest winds gusting to 30kts at taf issuance will veer to the west at similar speeds around 21z then northwest at similar speeds, maybe higher around 00z. There is a small chance for blowing dust and sub VFR conditions around the 00z timeframe. For the remainder of the period northwest winds gusting to 30kts or so are expected. Stratus and sub VFR cigs are possible in the 08z-12z timeframe. KMCK...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period. A south wind around 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the southwest and gust up to 25kts around 21z then shift to the northwest and gust up to 30kts by 00z. For tonight through Wednesday morning northwest winds gusting up to 30kts will continue. Stratus and sub VFR cigs are possible in the 08z-12z timeframe. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for KSZ041. CO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ254. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...AW AVIATION...99