455 
FXUS64 KMAF 191921
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
221 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

VFR with sunny skies and winds mainly out of the SW this
afternoon. Expect gusty W/SW winds at the southeast New Mexico
terminals today before dying down around sunset. Winds will then
veer around to the S/SE overnight, remaining light everywhere
except KFST where some gusts will be possible. Light winds will
then shift to more N/NW beginning around 12z. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Mostly uneventful short-term forecast as southwesterly winds push
warmer air into the region and skies remain clear. Highs this 
afternoon will be around 10 degrees above normal, giving us mid to
upper 80s across the CWA. A tightening surface gradient today 
will keep winds gusty (10-20kts) across SE New Mexico and areas 
along and north of the Trans Pecos. Low-level moisture continues 
across the Big Bend region with decent CAPE values, indicating a 
storm or two will be possible. Models keep any development south 
of the international border, but cannot rule out a short-lived 
thunderstorm over the southern Big Bend region this 
afternoon/evening. Overnight lows will be mostly in the 50s, 
similar to this morning.

Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday as a low pressure system moves
eastward over the Central Plains, sending a weak cold front into 
Texas. This front looks to stall across Lubbock's CWA and we 
unfortunately won't see any effects from it. As such, expect 
mostly clear skies and similar temperatures for Wednesday with 
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Available moisture in the lower 
levels has a few models pointing at storm development off the 
Glass Mountain and across Pecos county. Isolated storms will be 
possible here late Wednesday night, but anything that develops 
will quickly dissipate after sunset. Lows Wednesday night will 
once again be in the 50s, but expect a few 60s across the Lower 
Trans Pecos where overnight clouds will reduce radiational 
cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through  Monday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Upper level flow could not get any more zonal than what we will
see in the extended forecast. Westerly winds will keep
temperatures above normal and greatly limit rain chances.
Perhaps the best, if not only, rain chances appear to be Thursday
afternoon and evening when a weak upper disturbance moves across 
the area coinciding with peak heating. The resulting instability 
may allow for scattered storms to develop in the higher elevations
of the Big Bend. Otherwise the forecast will be dry until our next
cold front due around the middle of next week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               57  86  57  85 /   0   0   0  10 
Carlsbad                 49  84  50  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   61  87  63  87 /   0   0   0  10 
Fort Stockton            56  87  59  87 /   0   0   0  20 
Guadalupe Pass           54  77  56  78 /   0   0   0  10 
Hobbs                    49  83  51  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    47  82  48  82 /   0  10   0  30 
Midland Intl Airport     57  86  58  85 /   0   0   0  10 
Odessa                   58  87  59  85 /   0   0   0  10 
Wink                     53  88  56  86 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...88