455 FXUS64 KMAF 191921 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 221 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 VFR with sunny skies and winds mainly out of the SW this afternoon. Expect gusty W/SW winds at the southeast New Mexico terminals today before dying down around sunset. Winds will then veer around to the S/SE overnight, remaining light everywhere except KFST where some gusts will be possible. Light winds will then shift to more N/NW beginning around 12z. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Mostly uneventful short-term forecast as southwesterly winds push warmer air into the region and skies remain clear. Highs this afternoon will be around 10 degrees above normal, giving us mid to upper 80s across the CWA. A tightening surface gradient today will keep winds gusty (10-20kts) across SE New Mexico and areas along and north of the Trans Pecos. Low-level moisture continues across the Big Bend region with decent CAPE values, indicating a storm or two will be possible. Models keep any development south of the international border, but cannot rule out a short-lived thunderstorm over the southern Big Bend region this afternoon/evening. Overnight lows will be mostly in the 50s, similar to this morning. Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday as a low pressure system moves eastward over the Central Plains, sending a weak cold front into Texas. This front looks to stall across Lubbock's CWA and we unfortunately won't see any effects from it. As such, expect mostly clear skies and similar temperatures for Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Available moisture in the lower levels has a few models pointing at storm development off the Glass Mountain and across Pecos county. Isolated storms will be possible here late Wednesday night, but anything that develops will quickly dissipate after sunset. Lows Wednesday night will once again be in the 50s, but expect a few 60s across the Lower Trans Pecos where overnight clouds will reduce radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Upper level flow could not get any more zonal than what we will see in the extended forecast. Westerly winds will keep temperatures above normal and greatly limit rain chances. Perhaps the best, if not only, rain chances appear to be Thursday afternoon and evening when a weak upper disturbance moves across the area coinciding with peak heating. The resulting instability may allow for scattered storms to develop in the higher elevations of the Big Bend. Otherwise the forecast will be dry until our next cold front due around the middle of next week. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 57 86 57 85 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 49 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 61 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 56 87 59 87 / 0 0 0 20 Guadalupe Pass 54 77 56 78 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 49 83 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 47 82 48 82 / 0 10 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 58 87 59 85 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 53 88 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...88