594 
FXUS63 KAPX 190132
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
932 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Surface ridging continues to poke northward into lower MI. Skies
are effectively clear, and temps are falling quickly into the 40s.
Most guidance min temp guidance appears too warm, and have lowered
things a bit. Also some valley/ground fog is expected (MBL already
seeing vsby restrictions).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...Clear and Comfortable Tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

High pressure currently extending from eastern Wisconsin into 
western portions of the Great Lakes will move slowly across the 
region tonight. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge axis will approach 
from the west. This pattern should continue to lead to clear skies 
through tonight. Temperatures are a bit tricky with the pressure 
gradient tightening up some overnight. Winds aloft increase but 
surface winds are expected to be decoupled due to the center of the 
upper level ridge remaining just to our west. This setup should lead 
to lows mainly in the low and mid 40s except for the mid and 
upper 30s in low lying spots. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A large area of high pressure and 
associated dry air centered over the southeastern CONUS will 
continue to ridge into the Great Lakes region, providing sunshine 
and above normal temperatures to the forecast area. This high 
pressure will be surrounded by systems to the west, east, and 
north...producing a pressure gradient that will create breezy 
conditions from the west Tuesday and much of Wednesday, especially 
during the afternoon hours. As the system to our west approaches the 
forecast area it continues to deepen slightly and advect deeper 
moisture on strong southerly flow with the warm front draped across 
the straits area Wednesday night, returning shower/thunder chances 
to the area. The low continues to deepen as it crosses through 
northern Michigan Thursday. Winds then veer to northwesterly behind 
the departing system Thursday afternoon/evening, ushering in cooler 
temperatures with gusts of 20-25mph. Eastern upper may see some lake 
effect begin at this time as cooler 850mb temperatures will descend 
there first, along with wrap around moisture, with 850mb 
temperatures of -2 to -5C. Northern lower will see this begin later 
in the evening to the overnight hours into the next forecast period 
as this colder air pushes farther south.

Daytime temperatures will continue to be above normal for this time 
of the year reaching to near 70 Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday will 
vary greatly from north to south, with eastern upper only reaching 
into the upper 50s (but still above normal) and northeast lower into 
the mid to upper 60s. Thursday will be cooler yet again as the 
colder air filters in on the northwesterly flow, reaching into the 
50s throughout the entire forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

High Impact Weather Potential...minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Heights continue to fall as well as 
850mb temperatures behind the departing system from the previous 
forecast period as it continues off to the northeast and deepen some 
more. 850mb temperatures will be -2 to -5C throughout the entire 
forecast area with winds north-northwesterly producing some lake 
effect/enhanced showers in that favorable wind regime area. The rest 
of the area...especially eastern upper will be more favorable for 
lake enhanced showers as the wrap around moisture from the departing 
system lingers overhead. Friday night and Saturday night may be the 
first chance for some to see snow flying as overnight temperatures 
near or possibly exceed freezing. This will be mostly over the 
higher terrain of interior northern lower and eastern upper 
Michigan. No accumulations are expected as ground temperatures will 
be too warm and some locations may even be mixed with some rain as 
you move farther from the higher terrain areas. The rest of the 
forecast period will have a rather progressive pattern with 
precipitation chances throughout with rain possibly mixing in with 
snow or changing over to snow each night through at least Sunday 
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 717 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

VFR, other than some potential ground fog overnight.

High pressure in eastern KY extends ridging into lower MI.
Abundant dry air is leading to clear skies; perhaps a few shreds
of cirrus arrive Tuesday. Not out of the question a touch of fog
could form overnight, mainly at PLN and MBL. Otherwise VFR.

A bit of a sw breeze develops Tuesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru the early part 
of this work week as high pressure remains in control. Dry wx is 
expected thru Tuesday night...with rain expected to arrive later 
Wednesday and Wednesday night.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...AS